UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
Saturday, January 18, 2025·Inglewood, California, USA
Model Record: 7/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Lightweight✓
Islam Makhachev won by Submission (R1)
Makhachev 83%17% Moicano
STRONG
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +485(favors Makhachev)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Makhachev)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Makhachev)
Bantamweight✓
Merab Dvalishvili won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Dvalishvili 52%48% Nurmagomedov
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +319(favors Dvalishvili)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Dvalishvili)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Dvalishvili)
Light Heavyweight✗
Jiri Prochazka won by KO/TKO (R3)
Prochazka 34%66% Hill
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +5(favors Prochazka)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Hill)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Prochazka)
Heavyweight✓
Jailton Almeida won by KO/TKO (R1)
Almeida 54%46% Spivac
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -23(favors Spivac)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Spivac)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.1(favors Spivac)
Middleweight✗
Reinier de Ridder won by Submission (R1)
Ridder 44%56% Holland
LEAN
→Elo gap: -109(favors Holland)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Holland)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.6(favors Ridder)
Bantamweight✗
Raoni Barcelos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Barcelos 33%67% Talbott
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -132(favors Talbott)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Talbott)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Barcelos)
Middleweight✗
Azamat Bekoev won by KO/TKO (R1)
Bekoev 33%67% Reese
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -52(favors Reese)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.0(favors Reese)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.4(favors Reese)
Light Heavyweight✓
Bogdan Guskov won by Submission (R2)
Guskov 52%48% Elekana
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +256(favors Guskov)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Guskov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Elekana)
Lightweight✓
Grant Dawson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dawson 63%37% Ferreira
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +74(favors Dawson)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Ferreira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.2(favors Dawson)
Women's Bantamweight✓
Ailin Perez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Perez 68%32% Rosa
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +58(favors Perez)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.5(favors Rosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.4(favors Perez)
Bantamweight✗
Muin Gafurov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gafurov 41%59% Nakamura
LEAN
→Elo gap: -153(favors Nakamura)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Gafurov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.0(favors Nakamura)
Bantamweight✓
Benardo Sopaj won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sopaj 54%46% Turcios
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -55(favors Turcios)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Turcios)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Sopaj)
Flyweight✗
Tagir Ulanbekov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ulanbekov 46%54% Carpenter
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +130(favors Ulanbekov)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Carpenter)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Ulanbekov)