UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Islam Makhachev (16-1) taking on Renato Moicano (12-6).

Makhachev is rated at 2210 — 668 points above Moicano's 1542. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Makhachev rides a 15-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Makhachev throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Makhachev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Makhachev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Islam Makhachev over Renato Moicano.** The model is firm on this one: Makhachev at 83%.

The Bantamweight championship matchup features Merab Dvalishvili (14-2) taking on Umar Nurmagomedov (7-1).

Dvalishvili is rated at 1867 — 166 points above Nurmagomedov's 1701. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dvalishvili rides a 14-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dvalishvili throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Dvalishvili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Nurmagomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Merab Dvalishvili over Umar Nurmagomedov.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dvalishvili at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jiri Prochazka (5-2) taking on Jamahal Hill (6-3).

Prochazka is rated at 1806 — 410 points above Hill's 1396. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Prochazka's all-rounder game against Hill's striker approach. Prochazka is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Hill brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Prochazka is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Hill has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jamahal Hill over Jiri Prochazka.** We're leaning Hill here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jailton Almeida (8-2) taking on Serghei Spivac (8-6).

Almeida carries a modest Elo edge (1428 to 1355), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Almeida looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Spivac is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Almeida the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Spivac throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Spivac is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Almeida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jailton Almeida over Serghei Spivac.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Almeida at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Reinier de Ridder (4-0) taking on Kevin Holland (15-11). Holland will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ridder is rated at 1433 — 176 points above Holland's 1257. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ridder rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holland throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Ridder is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.6 more per 15 minutes. Ridder has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kevin Holland over Reinier de Ridder.** The model gives Holland a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Raoni Barcelos (9-4) taking on Payton Talbott (4-1). Talbott is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Barcelos at 1410, Talbott at 1414. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Barcelos rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Talbott throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Barcelos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Barcelos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Payton Talbott over Raoni Barcelos.** We're leaning Talbott here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Azamat Bekoev (2-0) taking on Zach Reese (4-2). Reese is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Bekoev carries a modest Elo edge (1057 to 993), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reese throws significantly more leather — a 5.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Reese is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.4 more per 15 minutes. Bekoev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Zach Reese over Azamat Bekoev.** We're leaning Reese here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Bogdan Guskov (4-1) taking on Billy Elekana (2-1).

Guskov is rated at 1480 — 292 points above Elekana's 1188. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Guskov rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guskov throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Elekana is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Elekana has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Bogdan Guskov over Billy Elekana.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Guskov at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Grant Dawson (11-1-1) taking on Diego Ferreira (10-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Dawson at 1336 versus Ferreira at 1213. That 123-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Dawson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Dawson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Ferreira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dawson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferreira throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Dawson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Ferreira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Grant Dawson over Diego Ferreira.** The model gives Dawson a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Ailin Perez (4-1) taking on Karol Rosa (7-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Perez at 1291 versus Rosa at 1201. That 90-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Perez rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Perez's wrestler game against Rosa's striker approach. Perez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Rosa brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rosa throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Perez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.4 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ailin Perez over Karol Rosa.** We're leaning Perez here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Muin Gafurov (2-2) taking on Rinya Nakamura (3-1).

Nakamura is rated at 1183 — 157 points above Gafurov's 1026. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gafurov throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Nakamura is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Nakamura has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rinya Nakamura over Muin Gafurov.** The model gives Nakamura a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Benardo Sopaj (0-1) taking on Ricky Turcios (2-2). Turcios is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Sopaj at 971 versus Turcios at 829. That 142-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Turcios throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Sopaj is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Sopaj has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Benardo Sopaj over Ricky Turcios.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sopaj at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Tagir Ulanbekov (6-1) taking on Clayton Carpenter (2-1). Ulanbekov will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ulanbekov is rated at 1261 — 270 points above Carpenter's 991. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ulanbekov rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Carpenter throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ulanbekov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Carpenter has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Clayton Carpenter over Tagir Ulanbekov.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Carpenter at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.