UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
Saturday, December 13, 2014·Phoenix, Arizona, USA
Model Record: 7/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Heavyweight✗
Junior Dos Santos won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Santos 43%57% Miocic
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +115(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Miocic)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Miocic)
Lightweight✓
Rafael Dos Anjos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Anjos 62%38% Diaz
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +212(favors Anjos)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.9(favors Diaz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Anjos)
Heavyweight✓
Alistair Overeem won by KO/TKO (R1)
Overeem 74%26% Struve
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (+5.3% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: -254(favors Struve)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Overeem)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Overeem)
Heavyweight✓
Matt Mitrione won by KO/TKO (R1)
Mitrione 71%29% Gonzaga
CONFIDENTMarket: 55% (+15.7% edge)
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: +76(favors Mitrione)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Mitrione)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Gonzaga)
Women's Strawweight✗
Joanna Jedrzejczyk won by Decision - Split (R3)
Jedrzejczyk 28%72% Gadelha
CONFIDENTMarket: 31% (-2.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -0(favors Gadelha)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Gadelha)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.0(favors Gadelha)
Flyweight✓
John Moraga won by Submission (R3)
Moraga 85%15% Gates
STRONGMarket: 82% (+3.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +197(favors Moraga)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Moraga)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Moraga)
Welterweight✓
Ben Saunders won by Submission (R1)
Saunders 76%24% Riggs
STRONGMarket: 69% (+7.0% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +90(favors Saunders)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Riggs)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.4(favors Riggs)
Lightweight✗
Drew Dober won by Submission (R1)
Dober 31%69% Varner
CONFIDENTMarket: 23% (+8.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -60(favors Varner)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Dober)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.0(favors Varner)
Lightweight✗
Bryan Barberena won by KO/TKO (R3)
Barberena 26%74% Ellenberger
CONFIDENTMarket: 32% (-5.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -68(favors Ellenberger)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Ellenberger)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.0(favors Ellenberger)
Lightweight✓
David Michaud won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Michaud 79%21% Whiteley
STRONGMarket: 67% (+12.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +145(favors Michaud)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Michaud)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Michaud)
Bantamweight✓
Henry Cejudo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cejudo 67%33% Kimura
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (-2.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +11(favors Cejudo)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Kimura)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Kimura)
Bantamweight✗
Ian Entwistle won by Submission (R1)
Entwistle 27%73% Birchak
CONFIDENTMarket: 33% (-5.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -128(favors Birchak)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Entwistle)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Birchak)