UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight championship matchup features Junior Dos Santos (15-7) taking on Stipe Miocic (14-4). Miocic will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Miocic is rated at 1847 — 656 points above Santos's 1191. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Santos's all-rounder game against Miocic's striker approach. Santos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Miocic brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miocic throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Miocic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Miocic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Stipe Miocic over Junior Dos Santos.** The model gives Miocic a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Rafael Dos Anjos (21-14) taking on Nate Diaz (15-11). Diaz is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Diaz is rated at 1557 — 275 points above Anjos's 1282. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Anjos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Diaz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Diaz the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Diaz throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Anjos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Anjos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rafael Dos Anjos over Nate Diaz.** The model gives Anjos a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Alistair Overeem (12-7) taking on Stefan Struve (13-10). Struve is the bigger frame at 6'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Overeem is rated at 1412 — 534 points above Struve's 878. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Overeem brings a versatile approach, while Struve is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Struve the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Overeem throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Overeem is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Overeem has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alistair Overeem over Stefan Struve.** We're leaning Overeem here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Overeem at 69% implied while our model sees 74% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Matt Mitrione (9-4) taking on Gabriel Gonzaga (12-9). Mitrione will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Mitrione is rated at 1200 — 233 points above Gonzaga's 967. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Mitrione's striker game against Gonzaga's submission artist approach. Mitrione brings a versatile approach, while Gonzaga is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mitrione throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gonzaga is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Gonzaga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Matt Mitrione over Gabriel Gonzaga.** We're leaning Mitrione here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Mitrione at 55% implied while our model sees 71% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Joanna Jedrzejczyk (10-4) taking on Claudia Gadelha (7-4). Jedrzejczyk is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Jedrzejczyk at 1192, Gadelha at 1187. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gadelha throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Gadelha is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Gadelha has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Claudia Gadelha over Joanna Jedrzejczyk.** We're leaning Gadelha here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features John Moraga (8-5) taking on Willie Gates (1-2). Gates is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Moraga is rated at 1166 — 351 points above Gates's 816. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Moraga rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moraga throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Moraga is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Gates has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: John Moraga over Willie Gates.** The model is firm on this one: Moraga at 85%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Ben Saunders (9-9) taking on Joe Riggs (5-6). Saunders is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Riggs carries a modest Elo edge (842 to 812), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Saunders's knockout artist game against Riggs's wrestler approach. Saunders is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Riggs looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Riggs throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Riggs is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Riggs has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ben Saunders over Joe Riggs.** The model is firm on this one: Saunders at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Saunders at 69% implied while our model sees 76% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Drew Dober (13-11) taking on Jamie Varner (3-5).

Dober is rated at 1083 — 309 points above Varner's 774. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Dober is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Varner looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Varner the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dober throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Varner is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Varner has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jamie Varner over Drew Dober.** We're leaning Varner here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Dober at 23% implied while our model sees 31% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Bryan Barberena (9-9) taking on Joe Ellenberger (1-0). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Barberena.

Barberena carries a modest Elo edge (960 to 916), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ellenberger throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ellenberger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Barberena has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joe Ellenberger over Bryan Barberena.** We're leaning Ellenberger here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 32% for Barberena, but our model sees only 26%. That 6-point gap favoring Ellenberger is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features David Michaud (1-1) taking on Garett Whiteley (0-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Michaud at 886 versus Whiteley at 736. That 150-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Michaud throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Michaud is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Michaud has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: David Michaud over Garett Whiteley.** The model is firm on this one: Michaud at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Michaud at 67% implied while our model sees 79% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Henry Cejudo (10-5) taking on Dustin Kimura (2-2). Kimura is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Cejudo is rated at 1416 — 509 points above Kimura's 907. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kimura throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Kimura is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Cejudo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Henry Cejudo over Dustin Kimura.** We're leaning Cejudo here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Ian Entwistle (1-1) taking on Anthony Birchak (2-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Entwistle at 891 versus Birchak at 808. That 83-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Entwistle throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Birchak is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Birchak has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Birchak over Ian Entwistle.** We're leaning Birchak here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 33% for Entwistle, but our model sees only 27%. That 5-point gap favoring Birchak is worth watching.