UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
Saturday, December 6, 2014·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·11 fights
Model: 8/11(73%)
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Main Card
WelterweightMISS
Robbie Lawler won by Decision - Split (R5)
Lawler 33%67% Hendricks
Over/UnderOver 73%
Under 27%Over 73%
CONFIDENTMarket: 34% (-0.5% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -293(favors Hendricks)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Lawler)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.8(favors Hendricks)
LightweightHIT
Anthony Pettis won by Submission (R2)
Pettis 68%32% Melendez
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (-1.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +659(favors Pettis)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Melendez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Pettis)
HeavyweightHIT
Travis Browne won by KO/TKO (R1)
Browne 72%28% Schaub
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
CONFIDENTMarket: 74% (-2.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +311(favors Browne)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Browne)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.7(favors Schaub)
HeavyweightHIT
Todd Duffee won by KO/TKO (R1)
Duffee 74%26% Hamilton
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
CONFIDENTMarket: 74% (+0.6% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +166(favors Duffee)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Hamilton)
→Takedown rate advantage: -6.5(favors Hamilton)
LightweightHIT
Tony Ferguson won by Submission (R2)
Ferguson 77%23% Trujillo
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
STRONGMarket: 69% (+8.1% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -49(favors Trujillo)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Trujillo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Trujillo)
Prelims
BantamweightHIT
Urijah Faber won by Submission (R2)
Faber 84%16% Rivera
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
STRONGMarket: 80% (+4.1% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +220(favors Faber)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Rivera)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Faber)
MiddleweightMISS
Josh Samman won by KO/TKO (R2)
Samman 42%58% Gordon
Over/UnderUnder 62%
Under 62%Over 38%
LEANMarket: 40% (+1.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Gordon)
→Striking volume advantage: -13.7(favors Gordon)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Gordon)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Corey Anderson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Anderson 85%15% Jones
Over/UnderUnder 63%
Under 63%Over 37%
STRONGMarket: 74% (+11.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +191(favors Anderson)
→Striking volume advantage: +23.6(favors Anderson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +29.5(favors Anderson)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Raquel Pennington won by Submission (R1)
Pennington 48%52% Evans-Smith
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
TOSS-UPMarket: 36% (+11.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -33(favors Evans-Smith)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.4(favors Pennington)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Pennington)
Early Prelims
BantamweightHIT
Sergio Pettis won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pettis 77%23% Hobar
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
STRONGMarket: 74% (+3.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +120(favors Pettis)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Pettis)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.0(favors Hobar)
FeatherweightHIT
Clay Collard won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Collard 60%40% White
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
LEANMarket: 44% (+15.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -12(favors White)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Collard)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Collard)