UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Robbie Lawler (14-10) taking on Johny Hendricks (13-7). Lawler is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Lawler is rated at 1297 — 228 points above Hendricks's 1068. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lawler throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Hendricks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Lawler has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Johny Hendricks over Robbie Lawler.** We're leaning Hendricks here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Anthony Pettis (10-9) taking on Gilbert Melendez (1-5).

Pettis is rated at 1512 — 536 points above Melendez's 976. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Pettis's all-rounder game against Melendez's striker approach. Pettis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Melendez brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Melendez throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Pettis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Melendez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Pettis over Gilbert Melendez.** We're leaning Pettis here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Travis Browne (9-6-1) taking on Brendan Schaub (6-4).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Browne at 1131, Schaub at 1154. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Browne is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Schaub looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Schaub the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Browne throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Schaub is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Schaub has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Travis Browne over Brendan Schaub.** We're leaning Browne here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 74% for Browne, but our model sees only 66%. That 8-point gap favoring Schaub is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Todd Duffee (3-2) taking on Anthony Hamilton (3-6).

Duffee is rated at 1133 — 411 points above Hamilton's 722. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hamilton throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Hamilton is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.5 more per 15 minutes. Duffee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Todd Duffee over Anthony Hamilton.** The model gives Duffee a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 74% for Duffee, but our model sees only 64%. That 10-point gap favoring Hamilton is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Tony Ferguson (15-8) taking on Abel Trujillo (6-3). Ferguson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Ferguson carries a modest Elo edge (1065 to 1031), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Ferguson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Trujillo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Ferguson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Trujillo throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Trujillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Ferguson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tony Ferguson over Abel Trujillo.** The model is firm on this one: Ferguson at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Ferguson at 69% implied while our model sees 78% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Urijah Faber (11-6) taking on Francisco Rivera (4-5). Rivera is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Faber is rated at 1297 — 325 points above Rivera's 972. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Faber looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Rivera is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Faber the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rivera throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Faber is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Rivera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Urijah Faber over Francisco Rivera.** The model is firm on this one: Faber at 83%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Josh Samman (3-1) taking on Eddie Gordon (1-2). Samman is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Samman is rated at 993 — 161 points above Gordon's 832. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gordon throws significantly more leather — a 13.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Gordon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gordon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Eddie Gordon over Josh Samman.** The model gives Gordon a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Samman at 40% implied while our model sees 44% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Corey Anderson (10-4) taking on Justin Jones (0-1).

Anderson is rated at 1459 — 604 points above Jones's 855. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Anderson rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anderson throws significantly more leather — a 23.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Anderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 29.5 more per 15 minutes. Jones has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Corey Anderson over Justin Jones.** The model is firm on this one: Anderson at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Anderson at 74% implied while our model sees 85% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Raquel Pennington (13-5) taking on Ashlee Evans-Smith (3-5).

Pennington is rated at 1411 — 654 points above Evans-Smith's 758. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Pennington rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Pennington's all-rounder game against Evans-Smith's striker approach. Pennington is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Evans-Smith brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pennington throws significantly more leather — a 5.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Pennington is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Evans-Smith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ashlee Evans-Smith over Raquel Pennington.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Evans-Smith at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Pennington at 36% implied while our model sees 45% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Sergio Pettis (8-5) taking on Matt Hobar (1-1). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Hobar.

Pettis is rated at 1235 — 338 points above Hobar's 897. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pettis throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hobar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Pettis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sergio Pettis over Matt Hobar.** The model is firm on this one: Pettis at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Pettis at 74% implied while our model sees 77% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Clay Collard (1-2) taking on Alex White (4-5).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Collard at 891, White at 907. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Collard throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Collard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. White has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Clay Collard over Alex White.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Collard at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Collard at 44% implied while our model sees 53% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.