UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bisping
Friday, November 7, 2014·Sydney, New South Wales, Australia·11 fights
Model: 8/11(73%)
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Main Card
MiddleweightHIT
Luke Rockhold won by Submission (R2)
Rockhold 84%16% Bisping
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
STRONGMarket: 79% (+4.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +35(favors Rockhold)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Bisping)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Bisping)
LightweightHIT
Al Iaquinta won by KO/TKO (R2)
Iaquinta 64%36% Pearson
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEANMarket: 40% (+23.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -146(favors Pearson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Iaquinta)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Iaquinta)
MiddleweightMISS
Robert Whittaker won by KO/TKO (R2)
Whittaker 40%60% Hester
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
LEANMarket: 37% (+3.5% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -376(favors Hester)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Whittaker)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Hester)
HeavyweightHIT
Soa Palelei won by KO/TKO (R2)
Palelei 72%28% Harris
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
CONFIDENTMarket: 59% (+12.4% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +639(favors Palelei)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Palelei)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Palelei)
LightweightHIT
Jake Matthews won by Submission (R2)
Matthews 90%10% Rocha
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
STRONGMarket: 77% (+13.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +282(favors Matthews)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Matthews)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.7(favors Matthews)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Anthony Perosh won by Submission (R1)
Perosh 37%63% Inocente
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
LEANMarket: 35% (+2.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +230(favors Perosh)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Perosh)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Perosh)
Prelims
MiddleweightHIT
Sam Alvey won by KO/TKO (R1)
Alvey 66%34% Andrews
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
CONFIDENTMarket: 39% (+26.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -160(favors Andrews)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.3(favors Alvey)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.4(favors Andrews)
FlyweightHIT
Louis Smolka won by KO/TKO (R3)
Smolka 80%20% Vaculik
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
STRONGMarket: 75% (+4.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +46(favors Smolka)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Smolka)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Vaculik)
WelterweightHIT
Chris Clements won by KO/TKO (R1)
Clements 62%38% Grujic
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
LEANMarket: 44% (+18.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -134(favors Grujic)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Clements)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Grujic)
MiddleweightMISS
Daniel Kelly won by Submission (R1)
Kelly 33%67% Zachrich
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
CONFIDENTMarket: 27% (+5.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -80(favors Zachrich)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.4(favors Zachrich)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Zachrich)
BantamweightHIT
Marcus Brimage won by KO/TKO (R1)
Brimage 92%8% Tuerxun
Over/UnderOver 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
STRONGMarket: 82% (+10.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +259(favors Brimage)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Brimage)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Brimage)