UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bisping: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Luke Rockhold (6-4) taking on Michael Bisping (20-8). Rockhold is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Bisping is rated at 1522 — 219 points above Rockhold's 1302. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Rockhold's all-rounder game against Bisping's striker approach. Rockhold is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Bisping brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bisping throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Bisping is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Rockhold has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Luke Rockhold over Michael Bisping.** The model is firm on this one: Rockhold at 75%. The market implies 79% for Rockhold, but our model sees only 75%. That 4-point gap favoring Bisping is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Al Iaquinta (9-5) taking on Ross Pearson (12-12).

Iaquinta is rated at 1195 — 346 points above Pearson's 849. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Iaquinta's all-rounder game against Pearson's striker approach. Iaquinta is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Pearson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Iaquinta throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Iaquinta is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Pearson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Al Iaquinta over Ross Pearson.** The model gives Iaquinta a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Iaquinta at 40% implied while our model sees 63% — a 23-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Robert Whittaker (17-6) taking on Clint Hester (4-2). Hester is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Whittaker is rated at 1528 — 636 points above Hester's 892. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Whittaker throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Hester is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Hester has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Clint Hester over Robert Whittaker.** The model gives Hester a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Soa Palelei (4-2) taking on Walt Harris (6-8). Palelei will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Harris at 1133 versus Palelei at 1009. That 124-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Palelei throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Palelei is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Harris has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Soa Palelei over Walt Harris.** We're leaning Palelei here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Palelei at 59% implied while our model sees 69% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Jake Matthews (15-7) taking on Vagner Rocha (1-2).

Matthews is rated at 1295 — 428 points above Rocha's 868. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Matthews rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Matthews throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Matthews is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Rocha has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jake Matthews over Vagner Rocha.** The model is firm on this one: Matthews at 92%. Notably, the betting market has Matthews at 77% implied while our model sees 92% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Anthony Perosh (5-6) taking on Guto Inocente (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Perosh at 872, Inocente at 855. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perosh throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Perosh is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Inocente has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Guto Inocente over Anthony Perosh.** We're leaning Inocente here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 35% for Perosh, but our model sees only 25%. That 10-point gap favoring Inocente is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Sam Alvey (10-12-1) taking on Dylan Andrews (2-2).

Andrews carries a modest Elo edge (780 to 734), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alvey throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Andrews is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Andrews has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sam Alvey over Dylan Andrews.** The model gives Alvey a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Alvey at 39% implied while our model sees 55% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Louis Smolka (8-8) taking on Richie Vaculik (1-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Smolka.

There's a real Elo separation here: Smolka at 874 versus Vaculik at 766. That 108-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smolka throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Vaculik is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Smolka has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Louis Smolka over Richie Vaculik.** We're leaning Smolka here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Chris Clements (2-1) taking on Vik Grujic (1-2). Grujic will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Clements is rated at 1031 — 224 points above Grujic's 807. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Clements throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Grujic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Clements has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Vik Grujic over Chris Clements.** The model gives Grujic a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Daniel Kelly (6-3) taking on Luke Zachrich (1-1). Zachrich is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Kelly at 1052 versus Zachrich at 908. That 145-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Zachrich throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Zachrich is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Kelly has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Luke Zachrich over Daniel Kelly.** The model gives Zachrich a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Kelly at 27% implied while our model sees 38% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Marcus Brimage (4-3) taking on Jumabieke Tuerxun (0-2).

Brimage carries a modest Elo edge (806 to 728), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brimage throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Brimage is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Tuerxun has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marcus Brimage over Jumabieke Tuerxun.** The model is firm on this one: Brimage at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Brimage at 82% implied while our model sees 90% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.