UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
Saturday, January 11, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·14 fights
Model: 6/14(43%)
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Main Card
Women's StrawweightMISS
Mackenzie Dern won by Submission (R3)
Dern 39%61% Ribas
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
LEANMarket: 37% (+2.8% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -38(favors Ribas)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Ribas)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Ribas)
WelterweightHIT
Santiago Ponzinibbio won by KO/TKO (R3)
Ponzinibbio 51%49% Harris
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
TOSS-UPMarket: 58% (-7.4% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +36(favors Ponzinibbio)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Ponzinibbio)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Harris)
MiddleweightHIT
Cesar Almeida won by KO/TKO (R1)
Almeida 70%30% Alhassan
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (+0.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +42(favors Almeida)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Almeida)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Alhassan)
MiddleweightHIT
Roman Kopylov won by KO/TKO (R3)
Kopylov 75%25% Curtis
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (+6.8% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -98(favors Curtis)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Curtis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Kopylov)
FeatherweightMISS
Christian Rodriguez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rodriguez 35%65% Bashi
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
CONFIDENTMarket: 30% (+4.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +251(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.8(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Rodriguez)
WelterweightMISS
Punahele Soriano won by KO/TKO (R1)
Soriano 35%65% Medic
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENTMarket: 33% (+1.2% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -412(favors Medic)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Soriano)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Soriano)
Prelims
FlyweightMISS
Felipe Bunes won by Submission (R1)
Bunes 37%63% Johnson
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -150(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Bunes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Bunes)
MiddleweightMISS
Marco Tulio won by KO/TKO (R1)
Tulio 43%57% Potieria
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +83(favors Tulio)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.5(favors Potieria)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Potieria)
LightweightMISS
Thiago Moises won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Moises 46%54% Ogden
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +13(favors Moises)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Ogden)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Moises)
WelterweightMISS
Jacobe Smith won by KO/TKO (R1)
Smith 39%61% Parsons
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -53(favors Parsons)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.5(favors Parsons)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.5(favors Parsons)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Ernesta Kareckaite won by Decision - Split (R3)
Kareckaite 65%35% Caliari
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -128(favors Caliari)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.5(favors Kareckaite)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Kareckaite)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Bruno Lopes won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lopes 37%63% Gadzhiyasulov
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -64(favors Gadzhiyasulov)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Gadzhiyasulov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.0(favors Gadzhiyasulov)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Fatima Kline won by KO/TKO (R2)
Kline 61%39% Dudakova
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +1(favors Kline)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Dudakova)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Dudakova)
LightweightHIT
Nurullo Aliev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Aliev 54%46% Solecki
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -16(favors Solecki)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Solecki)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Aliev)