UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Mackenzie Dern (10-5) taking on Amanda Ribas (7-5). Ribas will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Dern is rated at 1472 — 424 points above Ribas's 1048. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Dern looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Ribas is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dern the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ribas throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Ribas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Ribas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Amanda Ribas over Mackenzie Dern.** The model gives Ribas a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Santiago Ponzinibbio (12-7) taking on Carlston Harris (4-2). Harris will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Ponzinibbio at 1177 versus Harris at 1097. That 80-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Ponzinibbio's striker game against Harris's wrestler approach. Ponzinibbio brings a versatile approach, while Harris looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ponzinibbio throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Harris is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Ponzinibbio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Carlston Harris over Santiago Ponzinibbio.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Harris at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Cesar Almeida (3-1) taking on Abdul Razak Alhassan (6-6). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Almeida.

There's a real Elo separation here: Almeida at 1107 versus Alhassan at 973. That 134-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Almeida throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Alhassan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Alhassan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cesar Almeida over Abdul Razak Alhassan.** The model gives Almeida a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Roman Kopylov (6-4) taking on Chris Curtis (5-4).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Kopylov at 1277, Curtis at 1258. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Curtis throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Kopylov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Kopylov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Roman Kopylov over Chris Curtis.** The model gives Kopylov a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Christian Rodriguez (5-3) taking on Austin Bashi (0-1).

Bashi carries a modest Elo edge (1075 to 1041), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodriguez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Bashi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Christian Rodriguez over Austin Bashi.** The model gives Rodriguez a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Punahele Soriano (6-4) taking on Uros Medic (6-3).

Medic is rated at 1484 — 196 points above Soriano's 1288. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Soriano rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Soriano throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Soriano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Medic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Uros Medic over Punahele Soriano.** The model gives Medic a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Felipe Bunes (1-1) taking on Jose Johnson (1-2). Johnson is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Bunes at 996 versus Johnson at 862. That 134-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bunes throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Bunes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jose Johnson over Felipe Bunes.** The model gives Johnson a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Marco Tulio (2-0) taking on Ihor Potieria (2-5). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Potieria.

Tulio is rated at 1133 — 312 points above Potieria's 821. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Potieria throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Potieria is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Tulio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ihor Potieria over Marco Tulio.** The model gives Potieria a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Thiago Moises (8-6) taking on Trey Ogden (3-2). Ogden is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Moises carries a modest Elo edge (1124 to 1077), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ogden throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Moises is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Ogden has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Thiago Moises over Trey Ogden.** The model gives Moises a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Jacobe Smith (2-0) taking on Preston Parsons (2-3).

Smith is rated at 1271 — 403 points above Parsons's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Parsons throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Parsons is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Smith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Preston Parsons over Jacobe Smith.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Parsons at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Ernesta Kareckaite (0-1) taking on Nicolle Caliari (0-1). Kareckaite is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

Kareckaite is rated at 999 — 160 points above Caliari's 839. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kareckaite throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Kareckaite is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Caliari has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ernesta Kareckaite over Nicolle Caliari.** We're leaning Kareckaite here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Bruno Lopes (1-0) taking on Magomed Gadzhiyasulov (1-0).

Lopes carries a modest Elo edge (1029 to 957), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gadzhiyasulov throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Gadzhiyasulov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Lopes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Magomed Gadzhiyasulov over Bruno Lopes.** We're leaning Gadzhiyasulov here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Fatima Kline (2-1) taking on Viktoriia Dudakova (2-1).

Kline is rated at 1257 — 409 points above Dudakova's 848. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dudakova throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Dudakova is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Kline has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Fatima Kline over Viktoriia Dudakova.** The model gives Kline a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Nurullo Aliev (2-0) taking on Joe Solecki (5-3).

Aliev is rated at 1232 — 201 points above Solecki's 1032. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Solecki throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Aliev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Aliev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nurullo Aliev over Joe Solecki.** The model gives Aliev a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.