UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Mackenzie Dern (11-5) taking on Amanda Ribas (7-6). Ribas will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Dern is rated at 1465 — 302 points above Ribas's 1163. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Dern looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Ribas is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dern the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ribas throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Ribas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Ribas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Amanda Ribas over Mackenzie Dern. The model gives Ribas a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Santiago Ponzinibbio (12-8) taking on Carlston Harris (4-3). Harris will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Ponzinibbio at 1335 versus Harris at 1228. That 106-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Ponzinibbio's striker game against Harris's wrestler approach. Ponzinibbio brings a versatile approach, while Harris looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ponzinibbio throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Harris is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Ponzinibbio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Santiago Ponzinibbio over Carlston Harris. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ponzinibbio at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 58% for Ponzinibbio, but our model sees only 51%. That 7-point gap favoring Harris is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Cesar Almeida (3-2) taking on Abdul Razak Alhassan (6-7). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Almeida.

There's a real Elo separation here: Almeida at 1209 versus Alhassan at 1071. That 138-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Almeida throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Alhassan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Alhassan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cesar Almeida over Abdul Razak Alhassan. We're leaning Almeida here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Roman Kopylov (6-5) taking on Chris Curtis (6-5).

Kopylov carries a modest Elo edge (1372 to 1295), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Curtis throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Kopylov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Kopylov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Roman Kopylov over Chris Curtis. We're leaning Kopylov here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Kopylov at 68% implied while our model sees 75% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Christian Rodriguez (5-4) taking on Austin Bashi (1-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Rodriguez at 1134, Bashi at 1140. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodriguez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Bashi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Austin Bashi over Christian Rodriguez. We're leaning Bashi here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Rodriguez at 30% implied while our model sees 35% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Punahele Soriano (7-4) taking on Uros Medic (7-3).

Medic is rated at 1584 — 259 points above Soriano's 1324. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Soriano rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Soriano throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Soriano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Medic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Uros Medic over Punahele Soriano. We're leaning Medic here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Felipe Bunes (1-3) taking on Jose Johnson (1-3). Johnson is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Bunes at 942 versus Johnson at 807. That 135-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bunes throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Bunes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jose Johnson over Felipe Bunes. The model gives Johnson a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Marco Tulio (2-1) taking on Ihor Potieria (2-6). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Potieria.

Tulio is rated at 1176 — 357 points above Potieria's 820. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Potieria throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Potieria is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Tulio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ihor Potieria over Marco Tulio. The model gives Potieria a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Thiago Moises (8-7) taking on Trey Ogden (3-3). Ogden is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Moises carries a modest Elo edge (1210 to 1134), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ogden throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Moises is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Ogden has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Trey Ogden over Thiago Moises. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ogden at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Jacobe Smith (3-0) taking on Preston Parsons (2-4).

Smith is rated at 1411 — 505 points above Parsons's 906. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Parsons throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Parsons is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Smith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Preston Parsons over Jacobe Smith. The model gives Parsons a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Ernesta Kareckaite (1-2) taking on Nicolle Caliari (0-2). Kareckaite is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Kareckaite at 879 versus Caliari at 788. That 91-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kareckaite throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Kareckaite is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Caliari has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ernesta Kareckaite over Nicolle Caliari. The model gives Kareckaite a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Bruno Lopes (1-2) taking on Magomed Gadzhiyasulov (1-1).

Lopes carries a modest Elo edge (983 to 913), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gadzhiyasulov throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Gadzhiyasulov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Lopes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Magomed Gadzhiyasulov over Bruno Lopes. The model gives Gadzhiyasulov a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Fatima Kline (3-1) taking on Viktoriia Dudakova (2-2).

Kline is rated at 1348 — 590 points above Dudakova's 758. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dudakova throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Dudakova is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Kline has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Fatima Kline over Viktoriia Dudakova. The model gives Kline a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Nurullo Aliev (3-0) taking on Joe Solecki (5-4).

Aliev is rated at 1341 — 244 points above Solecki's 1097. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Solecki throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Aliev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Aliev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nurullo Aliev over Joe Solecki. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Aliev at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.