UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Rory MacDonald (9-3) taking on Tarec Saffiedine (2-3). MacDonald is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

MacDonald is rated at 1465 — 349 points above Saffiedine's 1116. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Saffiedine throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. MacDonald is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. MacDonald has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rory MacDonald over Tarec Saffiedine.** We're leaning MacDonald here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Raphael Assuncao (12-6) taking on Bryan Caraway (6-3). Caraway is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Caraway at 1191 versus Assuncao at 1099. That 92-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Assuncao is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Caraway looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Caraway the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Assuncao throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Caraway is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Assuncao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Bryan Caraway over Raphael Assuncao.** The model gives Caraway a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Chad Laprise (6-3) taking on Yosdenis Cedeno (1-2). Laprise is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Laprise carries a modest Elo edge (927 to 880), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Laprise throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Cedeno is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Laprise has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chad Laprise over Yosdenis Cedeno.** We're leaning Laprise here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Elias Theodorou (8-2) taking on Bruno Santos (1-1).

Theodorou is rated at 1270 — 327 points above Santos's 942. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Theodorou rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Theodorou throws significantly more leather — a 6.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Theodorou is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Theodorou has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Elias Theodorou over Bruno Santos.** The model is firm on this one: Theodorou at 81%.

The Welterweight matchup features Nordine Taleb (7-4) taking on Li Jingliang (11-6). Taleb will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jingliang is rated at 1270 — 295 points above Taleb's 976. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jingliang throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Taleb is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Taleb has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nordine Taleb over Li Jingliang.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Taleb at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Mitch Gagnon (4-3) taking on Roman Salazar (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Gagnon at 955 versus Salazar at 829. That 125-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gagnon throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Gagnon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Salazar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mitch Gagnon over Roman Salazar.** We're leaning Gagnon here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Daron Cruickshank (6-5) taking on Anthony Njokuani (3-4). Njokuani is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Njokuani at 972 versus Cruickshank at 879. That 92-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Cruickshank's knockout artist game against Njokuani's all-rounder approach. Cruickshank is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Njokuani is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Njokuani throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Cruickshank is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Cruickshank has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Daron Cruickshank over Anthony Njokuani.** The model gives Cruickshank a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Olivier Aubin-Mercier (7-4) taking on Jake Lindsey (0-2).

Aubin-Mercier is rated at 1070 — 346 points above Lindsey's 724. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lindsey throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Aubin-Mercier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Aubin-Mercier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Olivier Aubin-Mercier over Jake Lindsey.** We're leaning Aubin-Mercier here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Paul Felder (9-5) taking on Jason Saggo (3-2).

Felder is rated at 1363 — 350 points above Saggo's 1013. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Felder's all-rounder game against Saggo's striker approach. Felder is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Saggo brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Saggo throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Saggo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.1 more per 15 minutes. Felder has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jason Saggo over Paul Felder.** The model is firm on this one: Saggo at 75%.

The Flyweight matchup features Chris Kelades (2-1) taking on Paddy Holohan (3-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Holohan.

Holohan carries a modest Elo edge (1041 to 976), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holohan throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Holohan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kelades has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Paddy Holohan over Chris Kelades.** The model gives Holohan a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Albert Tumenov (5-2) taking on Matt Dwyer (1-2). Dwyer is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Tumenov is rated at 1109 — 209 points above Dwyer's 901. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tumenov throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Tumenov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Dwyer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Albert Tumenov over Matt Dwyer.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tumenov at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Pedro Munhoz (10-9) taking on Jerrod Sanders (1-1). Sanders is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Munhoz is rated at 1211 — 303 points above Sanders's 908. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Munhoz throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Munhoz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Munhoz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Pedro Munhoz over Jerrod Sanders.** The model gives Munhoz a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.