UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Ryan Bader (14-5) taking on Ovince Saint Preux (15-12). Preux will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Bader is rated at 1619 — 702 points above Preux's 917. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Bader looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Preux is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Bader the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bader throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Bader is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Bader has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ryan Bader over Ovince Saint Preux.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bader at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Ross Pearson (12-12) taking on Gray Maynard (11-6-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Maynard at 975 versus Pearson at 849. That 125-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Pearson's striker game against Maynard's all-rounder approach. Pearson brings a versatile approach, while Maynard is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pearson throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Pearson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Maynard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ross Pearson over Gray Maynard.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pearson at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Tim Boetsch (12-11) taking on Brad Tavares (16-10).

Boetsch is rated at 1174 — 249 points above Tavares's 925. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Boetsch is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Tavares brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Boetsch the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tavares throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Tavares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Tavares has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brad Tavares over Tim Boetsch.** The model gives Tavares a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Alan Jouban (7-5) taking on Seth Baczynski (5-5). Baczynski is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Jouban is rated at 1168 — 372 points above Baczynski's 796. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Jouban's striker game against Baczynski's all-rounder approach. Jouban brings a versatile approach, while Baczynski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Baczynski throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Baczynski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Jouban has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Seth Baczynski over Alan Jouban.** The model gives Baczynski a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Shawn Jordan (6-3) taking on Jack May (0-1).

Jordan is rated at 1164 — 382 points above May's 782. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jordan rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jordan throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. May is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Jordan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Shawn Jordan over Jack May.** The model gives Jordan a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Thiago Tavares (10-6-1) taking on Robert Peralta (4-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Tavares at 1124 versus Peralta at 1039. That 85-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Tavares's wrestler game against Peralta's striker approach. Tavares looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Peralta brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Peralta throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Tavares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Tavares has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Thiago Tavares over Robert Peralta.** The model gives Tavares a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Jussier Formiga (9-6) taking on Zach Makovsky (3-3). Formiga will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Formiga is rated at 1149 — 153 points above Makovsky's 996. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Formiga's wrestler game against Makovsky's striker approach. Formiga looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Makovsky brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Makovsky throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Makovsky is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Formiga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Zach Makovsky over Jussier Formiga.** The model gives Makovsky a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Sara McMann (6-6) taking on Lauren Murphy (8-6).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — McMann at 1158, Murphy at 1171. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: McMann looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Murphy is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving McMann the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. McMann throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. McMann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.8 more per 15 minutes. Murphy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sara McMann over Lauren Murphy.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward McMann at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Tom Watson (2-4) taking on Sam Alvey (10-12-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Watson at 868 versus Alvey at 734. That 134-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Watson's striker game against Alvey's all-rounder approach. Watson brings a versatile approach, while Alvey is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Watson throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Alvey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Alvey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sam Alvey over Tom Watson.** The model gives Alvey a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Frankie Saenz (5-4) taking on Nolan Ticman (0-1).

Saenz carries a modest Elo edge (888 to 854), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ticman throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ticman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ticman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nolan Ticman over Frankie Saenz.** The model gives Ticman a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.