UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Robbie Lawler (14-10) taking on Matt Brown (16-13).

There's a real Elo separation here: Lawler at 1297 versus Brown at 1201. That 96-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Lawler's striker game against Brown's submission artist approach. Lawler brings a versatile approach, while Brown is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Lawler has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Matt Brown over Robbie Lawler.** The model gives Brown a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Anthony Johnson (13-5) taking on Rogerio Nogueira (6-6). Johnson will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Johnson is rated at 1708 — 566 points above Nogueira's 1142. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Johnson's wrestler game against Nogueira's knockout artist approach. Johnson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Nogueira is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nogueira throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Johnson over Rogerio Nogueira.** We're leaning Johnson here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Dennis Bermudez (9-7) taking on Clay Guida (18-18). Guida will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Bermudez at 1068 versus Guida at 926. That 143-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Bermudez is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Guida looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Guida the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bermudez throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Bermudez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Guida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dennis Bermudez over Clay Guida.** We're leaning Bermudez here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features King Green (13-12-1) taking on Josh Thomson (3-3).

Thomson carries a modest Elo edge (1217 to 1176), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Green is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Thomson brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Green the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Green throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Thomson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Green has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: King Green over Josh Thomson.** We're leaning Green here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Jorge Masvidal (12-9) taking on Daron Cruickshank (6-5). Masvidal is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Masvidal is rated at 1579 — 699 points above Cruickshank's 879. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Masvidal's knockout artist game against Cruickshank's all-rounder approach. Masvidal is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Cruickshank is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cruickshank throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Masvidal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Masvidal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jorge Masvidal over Daron Cruickshank.** We're leaning Masvidal here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Patrick Cummins (6-6) taking on Kyle Kingsbury (4-4). Kingsbury is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Cummins carries a modest Elo edge (867 to 835), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cummins throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Cummins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Cummins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Patrick Cummins over Kyle Kingsbury.** We're leaning Cummins here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Tim Means (15-13) taking on Hernani Perpetuo (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Means at 872, Perpetuo at 864. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Means throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Means is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Means has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tim Means over Hernani Perpetuo.** We're leaning Means here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Mike de la Torre (2-3) taking on Brian Ortega (8-4). Torre is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Ortega is rated at 1490 — 554 points above Torre's 936. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Torre's striker game against Ortega's all-rounder approach. Torre brings a versatile approach, while Ortega is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Torre throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Torre is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Ortega has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brian Ortega over Mike de la Torre.** We're leaning Ortega here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Tiago dos Santos e Silva (2-1) taking on Akbarh Arreola (1-2).

Silva carries a modest Elo edge (911 to 875), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arreola throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Arreola is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Arreola has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tiago dos Santos e Silva over Akbarh Arreola.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Silva at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Gilbert Burns (15-8) taking on Andreas Stahl (0-1).

Burns is rated at 1379 — 550 points above Stahl's 829. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stahl throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Stahl is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Stahl has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Andreas Stahl over Gilbert Burns.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Stahl at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Joanna Jedrzejczyk (10-4) taking on Juliana Lima (3-3).

Jedrzejczyk is rated at 1192 — 291 points above Lima's 901. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Jedrzejczyk's all-rounder game against Lima's striker approach. Jedrzejczyk is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lima brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lima throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lima is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lima has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joanna Jedrzejczyk over Juliana Lima.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jedrzejczyk at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Noad Lahat (2-1) taking on Steven Siler (5-3).

Lahat carries a modest Elo edge (919 to 888), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lahat throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Siler is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Lahat has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Steven Siler over Noad Lahat.** We're leaning Siler here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.