UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Stephens
Saturday, June 28, 2014·San Antonio, Texas, USA
Model Record: 6/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
FeatherweightMISS
Cub Swanson won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Swanson 43%57% Stephens
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +185(favors Swanson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Swanson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Stephens)
WelterweightHIT
Kelvin Gastelum won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gastelum 73%27% Musoke
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +105(favors Gastelum)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Gastelum)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Musoke)
MiddleweightHIT
Cezar Ferreira won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ferreira 55%45% Craig
LEAN
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -27(favors Craig)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Craig)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Ferreira)
FeatherweightHIT
Ricardo Lamas won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lamas 57%43% Dias
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +263(favors Lamas)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Lamas)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Dias)
MiddleweightHIT
Clint Hester won by Decision - Split (R3)
Hester 59%41% Neto
LEAN
→Elo gap: +195(favors Hester)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Hester)
→Takedown rate advantage: -6.9(favors Neto)
LightweightMISS
Joe Ellenberger won by Decision - Split (R3)
Ellenberger 34%66% Moontasri
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -0(favors Moontasri)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Moontasri)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Moontasri)
LightweightMISS
Diego Ferreira won by Submission (R1)
Ferreira 35%65% Smith
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +123(favors Ferreira)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Smith)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.2(favors Smith)
BantamweightHIT
Cody Gibson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Gibson 52%48% Bedford
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -183(favors Bedford)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.9(favors Bedford)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Gibson)
MiddleweightMISS
Marcelo Guimaraes won by Decision - Split (R3)
Guimaraes 38%62% Enz
LEAN
→Elo gap: -71(favors Enz)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Enz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Guimaraes)
FlyweightHIT
Ray Borg won by Submission (R1)
Borg 71%29% Howell
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -61(favors Howell)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Borg)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.0(favors Borg)
HeavyweightMISS
Aleksei Oleinik won by Submission (R1)
Oleinik 44%56% Hamilton
LEAN
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -0(favors Hamilton)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Hamilton)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Hamilton)