UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Stephens: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight championship matchup features Cub Swanson (14-10) taking on Jeremy Stephens (15-18).

Swanson is rated at 1255 — 314 points above Stephens's 941. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Swanson's striker game against Stephens's all-rounder approach. Swanson brings a versatile approach, while Stephens is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Swanson throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Stephens is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Stephens has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jeremy Stephens over Cub Swanson.** The model gives Stephens a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Kelvin Gastelum (13-10) taking on Nicholas Musoke (3-2). Musoke is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Gastelum is rated at 1340 — 403 points above Musoke's 937. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Gastelum is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Musoke looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Musoke the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gastelum throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Musoke is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Gastelum has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kelvin Gastelum over Nicholas Musoke.** We're leaning Gastelum here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Cezar Ferreira (9-5) taking on Andrew Craig (3-3).

Ferreira is rated at 1033 — 181 points above Craig's 852. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Ferreira's wrestler game against Craig's striker approach. Ferreira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Craig brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Craig throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Ferreira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Craig has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cezar Ferreira over Andrew Craig.** The model gives Ferreira a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Ricardo Lamas (10-6) taking on Hacran Dias (3-4).

Lamas is rated at 1285 — 304 points above Dias's 980. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lamas throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Dias is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Lamas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ricardo Lamas over Hacran Dias.** The model gives Lamas a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Clint Hester (4-2) taking on Antonio Braga Neto (1-1).

Neto carries a modest Elo edge (968 to 892), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hester throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Neto is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.9 more per 15 minutes. Neto has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Clint Hester over Antonio Braga Neto.** The model gives Hester a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Ellenberger (1-0) taking on James Moontasri (2-3).

Moontasri carries a modest Elo edge (984 to 916), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moontasri throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Moontasri is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Moontasri has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: James Moontasri over Joe Ellenberger.** We're leaning Moontasri here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Diego Ferreira (10-6) taking on Colton Smith (1-2). Ferreira will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ferreira is rated at 1213 — 409 points above Smith's 804. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Smith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Ferreira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Colton Smith over Diego Ferreira.** We're leaning Smith here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Cody Gibson (3-6) taking on Johnny Bedford (2-2).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Gibson at 843, Bedford at 841. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bedford throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Gibson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Bedford has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cody Gibson over Johnny Bedford.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gibson at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Marcelo Guimaraes (2-1) taking on Andy Enz (0-2). Enz is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Guimaraes at 931 versus Enz at 805. That 126-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Enz throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Guimaraes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Enz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Andy Enz over Marcelo Guimaraes.** The model gives Enz a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Ray Borg (7-4) taking on Shane Howell (0-1).

Borg is rated at 1172 — 355 points above Howell's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Borg throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Borg is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Howell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ray Borg over Shane Howell.** We're leaning Borg here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Aleksei Oleinik (9-7) taking on Anthony Hamilton (3-6). Oleinik will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Oleinik is rated at 1073 — 351 points above Hamilton's 722. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Oleinik's wrestler game against Hamilton's striker approach. Oleinik looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hamilton brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hamilton throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hamilton is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hamilton has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Hamilton over Aleksei Oleinik.** The model gives Hamilton a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.