UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Marquardt: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Nate Marquardt (13-12) taking on James Te Huna (5-5).

Marquardt is rated at 1179 — 256 points above Huna's 924. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Marquardt's submission artist game against Huna's striker approach. Marquardt is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Huna brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Huna throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Marquardt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Marquardt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nate Marquardt over James Te Huna. The model gives Marquardt a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jared Rosholt (6-2) taking on Soa Palelei (4-3). Palelei is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Rosholt at 1256 versus Palelei at 1114. That 142-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Rosholt rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Rosholt's wrestler game against Palelei's striker approach. Rosholt looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Palelei brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Palelei throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Palelei is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Rosholt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jared Rosholt over Soa Palelei. We're leaning Rosholt here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Charles Oliveira (25-11) taking on Hatsu Hioki (3-5).

Oliveira is rated at 1974 — 1067 points above Hioki's 907. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Oliveira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hioki is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Oliveira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Hioki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Charles Oliveira over Hatsu Hioki. The model gives Oliveira a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Robert Whittaker (17-7) taking on Mike Rhodes (0-3).

Whittaker is rated at 1722 — 941 points above Rhodes's 781. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Whittaker throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Rhodes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Whittaker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Robert Whittaker over Mike Rhodes. We're leaning Whittaker here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Jake Matthews (15-8) taking on Dashon Johnson (0-2).

Matthews is rated at 1398 — 715 points above Johnson's 683. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Matthews rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jake Matthews over Dashon Johnson. The model gives Matthews a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Richie Vaculik (1-3) taking on Roldan Sangcha'an (0-2).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Vaculik at 653, Sangcha'an at 625. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vaculik throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Sangcha'an is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sangcha'an has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Roldan Sangcha'an over Richie Vaculik. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sangcha'an at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Vik Grujic (1-3) taking on Chris Indich (0-2).

Grujic carries a modest Elo edge (713 to 681), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Indich throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Indich is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Indich has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Indich over Vik Grujic. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Indich at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Neil Magny (24-13) taking on Rodrigo de Lima (0-2).

Magny is rated at 1418 — 642 points above Lima's 776. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magny throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Magny is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Lima has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Neil Magny over Rodrigo de Lima. We're leaning Magny here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Dan Hooker (14-10) taking on Ian Entwistle (1-2).

Hooker is rated at 1533 — 684 points above Entwistle's 849. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Entwistle throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Entwistle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Entwistle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dan Hooker over Ian Entwistle. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hooker at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Gian Villante (7-11) taking on Sean O'Connell (2-5). Villante is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

O'Connell is rated at 977 — 171 points above Villante's 807. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Villante's striker game against O'Connell's all-rounder approach. Villante brings a versatile approach, while O'Connell is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. O'Connell throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Villante is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Villante has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gian Villante over Sean O'Connell. We're leaning Villante here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.