UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Khabilov: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight championship matchup features Benson Henderson (11-3) taking on Rustam Khabilov (10-3). Khabilov will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Henderson at 1610 versus Khabilov at 1501. That 109-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Henderson's all-rounder game against Khabilov's striker approach. Henderson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Khabilov brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Henderson throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Khabilov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Henderson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rustam Khabilov over Benson Henderson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Khabilov at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Diego Sanchez (19-13) taking on Ross Pearson (12-13). Sanchez is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Sanchez is rated at 1216 — 258 points above Pearson's 958. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Sanchez's all-rounder game against Pearson's striker approach. Sanchez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Pearson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pearson throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Pearson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Pearson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ross Pearson over Diego Sanchez. The model gives Pearson a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features John Dodson (10-7) taking on John Moraga (8-6). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Moraga.

Dodson is rated at 1376 — 151 points above Moraga's 1225. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Moraga has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Dodson's striker game against Moraga's wrestler approach. Dodson brings a versatile approach, while Moraga looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dodson throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Moraga is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Dodson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Dodson over John Moraga. The model gives Dodson a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Rafael Dos Anjos (21-15) taking on Jason High (2-3). High will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Anjos is rated at 1443 — 275 points above High's 1168. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anjos throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Anjos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Anjos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rafael Dos Anjos over Jason High. We're leaning Anjos here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Piotr Hallmann (2-4) taking on Yves Edwards (10-10).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Hallmann at 938, Edwards at 913. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Hallmann looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Edwards is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Hallmann the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hallmann throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Hallmann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Edwards has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Piotr Hallmann over Yves Edwards. We're leaning Hallmann here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Bryan Caraway (6-4) taking on Erik Perez (7-2).

Perez carries a modest Elo edge (1353 to 1281), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Caraway's wrestler game against Perez's knockout artist approach. Caraway looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Perez is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perez throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Perez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Erik Perez over Bryan Caraway. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Perez at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Sergio Pettis (9-5) taking on Yaotzin Meza (2-4). Meza is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Pettis is rated at 1314 — 412 points above Meza's 902. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Pettis's striker game against Meza's wrestler approach. Pettis brings a versatile approach, while Meza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pettis throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Pettis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Pettis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sergio Pettis over Yaotzin Meza. We're leaning Pettis here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Lance Benoist (2-2) taking on Bobby Voelker (0-4).

Benoist is rated at 1048 — 397 points above Voelker's 652. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Voelker throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Voelker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Benoist has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lance Benoist over Bobby Voelker. The model is firm on this one: Benoist at 76%.

The Flyweight matchup features Scott Jorgensen (4-8) taking on Danny Martinez (1-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Martinez at 860 versus Jorgensen at 744. That 116-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jorgensen throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Martinez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.4 more per 15 minutes. Martinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Danny Martinez over Scott Jorgensen. The model gives Martinez a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Jon Tuck (4-5) taking on Jake Lindsey (0-3).

Tuck is rated at 1041 — 410 points above Lindsey's 631. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tuck throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lindsey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lindsey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jon Tuck over Jake Lindsey. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tuck at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Patrick Cummins (6-7) taking on Roger Narvaez (1-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Cummins at 1032 versus Narvaez at 917. That 115-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cummins throws significantly more leather — a 6.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Narvaez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Narvaez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Patrick Cummins over Roger Narvaez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cummins at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.