UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Gegard Mousasi (8-3) taking on Mark Munoz (8-6). Mousasi is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Mousasi is rated at 1761 — 679 points above Munoz's 1082. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Mousasi rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Mousasi is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Munoz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Munoz the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Munoz throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Munoz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Mousasi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gegard Mousasi over Mark Munoz.** The model gives Mousasi a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features CB Dollaway (11-8) taking on Francis Carmont (6-2).

Carmont is rated at 1167 — 202 points above Dollaway's 965. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dollaway throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Dollaway is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Carmont has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Francis Carmont over CB Dollaway.** The model gives Carmont a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Sean Strickland (16-7) taking on Luke Barnatt (3-2). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Barnatt.

Strickland is rated at 1813 — 851 points above Barnatt's 962. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barnatt throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Strickland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Strickland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sean Strickland over Luke Barnatt.** We're leaning Strickland here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Niklas Backstrom (1-1) taking on Tom Niinimaki (1-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Backstrom at 875 versus Niinimaki at 771. That 104-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Niinimaki throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Niinimaki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Backstrom has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tom Niinimaki over Niklas Backstrom.** We're leaning Niinimaki here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Nick Hein (4-3) taking on Drew Dober (13-11). Dober is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Dober is rated at 1083 — 264 points above Hein's 818. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Hein's striker game against Dober's all-rounder approach. Hein brings a versatile approach, while Dober is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dober throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Dober is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hein has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Drew Dober over Nick Hein.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dober at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Magnus Cedenblad (4-1) taking on Krzysztof Jotko (11-5). Cedenblad is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Jotko is rated at 1222 — 158 points above Cedenblad's 1063. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Cedenblad rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Cedenblad's wrestler game against Jotko's striker approach. Cedenblad looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Jotko brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cedenblad throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Jotko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Jotko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Krzysztof Jotko over Magnus Cedenblad.** The model gives Jotko a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Iuri Alcantara (10-6) taking on Vaughan Lee (3-4). Alcantara is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Alcantara is rated at 1046 — 155 points above Lee's 891. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lee throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Alcantara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Lee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Iuri Alcantara over Vaughan Lee.** The model gives Alcantara a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Peter Sobotta (4-5) taking on Pawel Pawlak (1-1).

Sobotta is rated at 1083 — 185 points above Pawlak's 898. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sobotta throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Sobotta is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Pawlak has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Pawel Pawlak over Peter Sobotta.** The model gives Pawlak a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Maximo Blanco (4-4) taking on Andy Ogle (1-4).

Blanco is rated at 1013 — 289 points above Ogle's 724. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Blanco's all-rounder game against Ogle's striker approach. Blanco is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Ogle brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Blanco throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Blanco is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Blanco has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Maximo Blanco over Andy Ogle.** The model gives Blanco a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Ruslan Magomedov (2-0) taking on Viktor Pesta (1-3).

Magomedov is rated at 1265 — 509 points above Pesta's 756. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pesta throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Pesta is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Pesta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Viktor Pesta over Ruslan Magomedov.** The model gives Pesta a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.