UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
Saturday, May 24, 2014·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·12 fights
Model: 5/12(42%)
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Main Card
BantamweightMISS
TJ Dillashaw won by KO/TKO (R5)
Dillashaw 46%54% Barao
Over/UnderOver 70%
Under 30%Over 70%
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -303(favors Barao)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Dillashaw)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Dillashaw)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Daniel Cormier won by Submission (R3)
Cormier 68%32% Henderson
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -86(favors Henderson)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Cormier)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Cormier)
WelterweightMISS
Robbie Lawler won by KO/TKO (R3)
Lawler 50%50% Ellenberger
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -193(favors Ellenberger)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Lawler)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Ellenberger)
BantamweightHIT
Takeya Mizugaki won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Mizugaki 60%40% Rivera
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -28(favors Rivera)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Mizugaki)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Mizugaki)
LightweightMISS
James Krause won by KO/TKO (R1)
Krause 50%50% Varner
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
TOSS-UP
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -31(favors Varner)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Krause)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Varner)
Prelims
LightweightHIT
Michael Chiesa won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Chiesa 63%37% Trinaldo
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +40(favors Chiesa)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Trinaldo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Chiesa)
LightweightHIT
Tony Ferguson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Ferguson 66%34% Kikuno
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +103(favors Ferguson)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Ferguson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Kikuno)
BantamweightMISS
Chris Holdsworth won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Holdsworth 50%50% Camus
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +111(favors Holdsworth)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Holdsworth)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Holdsworth)
LightweightMISS
Mitch Clarke won by Submission (R2)
Clarke 34%66% Iaquinta
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -328(favors Iaquinta)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Iaquinta)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Iaquinta)
Early Prelims
LightweightHIT
Vinc Pichel won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pichel 59%41% Njokuani
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -272(favors Njokuani)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Njokuani)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.5(favors Pichel)
FeatherweightMISS
Sam Sicilia won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sicilia 42%58% Phillips
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -77(favors Phillips)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Sicilia)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Sicilia)
WelterweightMISS
Li Jingliang won by Decision - Split (R3)
Jingliang 47%53% Michaud
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -0(favors Michaud)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Michaud)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Michaud)