UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight championship matchup features TJ Dillashaw (13-4) taking on Renan Barao (9-7). Barao will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Dillashaw is rated at 1581 — 760 points above Barao's 821. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Dillashaw is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Barao is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dillashaw the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dillashaw throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Dillashaw is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Barao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Renan Barao over TJ Dillashaw.** We're leaning Barao here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Daniel Cormier (11-2) taking on Dan Henderson (9-8).

Cormier is rated at 1835 — 431 points above Henderson's 1404. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cormier throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Cormier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Cormier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Daniel Cormier over Dan Henderson.** The model gives Cormier a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Robbie Lawler (14-10) taking on Jake Ellenberger (10-10). Lawler is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Lawler is rated at 1297 — 450 points above Ellenberger's 847. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lawler throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ellenberger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Ellenberger has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jake Ellenberger over Robbie Lawler.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ellenberger at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Takeya Mizugaki (8-5) taking on Francisco Rivera (4-5).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Mizugaki at 995, Rivera at 972. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mizugaki throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Mizugaki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Rivera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Francisco Rivera over Takeya Mizugaki.** The model gives Rivera a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features James Krause (8-4) taking on Jamie Varner (3-5). Krause is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Krause is rated at 1436 — 662 points above Varner's 774. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Krause's knockout artist game against Varner's wrestler approach. Krause is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Varner looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Krause throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Varner is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Krause has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: James Krause over Jamie Varner.** The model gives Krause a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Michael Chiesa (13-7) taking on Francisco Trinaldo (18-7). Chiesa is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Chiesa is rated at 1490 — 161 points above Trinaldo's 1329. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Trinaldo throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Chiesa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Chiesa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michael Chiesa over Francisco Trinaldo.** We're leaning Chiesa here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Tony Ferguson (15-8) taking on Katsunori Kikuno (2-2). Ferguson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 10-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Ferguson at 1065 versus Kikuno at 948. That 117-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferguson throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Kikuno is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Kikuno has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tony Ferguson over Katsunori Kikuno.** We're leaning Ferguson here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Chris Holdsworth (1-0) taking on Chico Camus (3-3).

Holdsworth is rated at 1178 — 226 points above Camus's 952. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holdsworth throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Holdsworth is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Camus has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chico Camus over Chris Holdsworth.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Camus at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Mitch Clarke (2-4) taking on Al Iaquinta (9-5). Clarke will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Iaquinta is rated at 1195 — 392 points above Clarke's 803. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Clarke's wrestler game against Iaquinta's striker approach. Clarke looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Iaquinta brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Iaquinta throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Iaquinta is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Iaquinta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Al Iaquinta over Mitch Clarke.** The model gives Iaquinta a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Vinc Pichel (7-4) taking on Anthony Njokuani (3-4). Njokuani is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Pichel at 1062 versus Njokuani at 972. That 90-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Njokuani throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Pichel is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.5 more per 15 minutes. Njokuani has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Vinc Pichel over Anthony Njokuani.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pichel at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Sam Sicilia (5-6) taking on Aaron Phillips (0-3). Phillips will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Sicilia at 827 versus Phillips at 733. That 93-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sicilia throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Sicilia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Phillips has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Aaron Phillips over Sam Sicilia.** The model gives Phillips a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Li Jingliang (11-6) taking on David Michaud (1-1).

Jingliang is rated at 1270 — 385 points above Michaud's 886. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Michaud throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Michaud is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Michaud has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: David Michaud over Li Jingliang.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Michaud at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.