UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
Saturday, May 10, 2014·Cincinnati, Ohio, USA
Model Record: 10/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Welterweight✓
Matt Brown won by KO/TKO (R3)
Brown 60%40% Silva
LEAN
Submission Artist vs Submission Artist — Submission Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +344(favors Brown)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Brown)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Brown)
Middleweight✓
Constantinos Philippou won by KO/TKO (R1)
Philippou 55%45% Larkin
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +87(favors Philippou)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Larkin)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Larkin)
Lightweight✓
Daron Cruickshank won by KO/TKO (R1)
Cruickshank 55%45% Koch
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -18(favors Koch)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Cruickshank)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Cruickshank)
Welterweight✓
Neil Magny won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Magny 63%37% Means
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -22(favors Means)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Means)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.2(favors Magny)
Heavyweight✓
Soa Palelei won by KO/TKO (R1)
Palelei 72%28% Potts
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +178(favors Palelei)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Palelei)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.3(favors Palelei)
Flyweight✗
Chris Cariaso won by Decision - Split (R3)
Cariaso 48%52% Smolka
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -3(favors Smolka)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Smolka)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Cariaso)
Middleweight✗
Ed Herman won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Herman 47%53% Natal
TOSS-UP
Submission Artist vs Knockout Artist — Submission Artist wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: +216(favors Herman)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Natal)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Natal)
Flyweight✓
Kyoji Horiguchi won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Horiguchi 66%34% Montague
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +141(favors Horiguchi)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Horiguchi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Horiguchi)
Welterweight✓
Zak Cummings won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cummings 55%45% Cabral
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +33(favors Cummings)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Cabral)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Cummings)
Bantamweight✗
Johnny Eduardo won by KO/TKO (R1)
Eduardo 39%61% Wineland
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -248(favors Wineland)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Wineland)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Wineland)
Featherweight✓
Nik Lentz won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lentz 73%27% Gamburyan
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +233(favors Lentz)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Lentz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Lentz)
Lightweight✓
Justin Salas won by KO/TKO (R1)
Salas 66%34% Wall
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +68(favors Salas)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Salas)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.1(favors Salas)
Welterweight✓
Albert Tumenov won by KO/TKO (R1)
Tumenov 71%29% Lapsley
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +12(favors Tumenov)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Tumenov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Tumenov)