UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Matt Brown (16-13) taking on Erick Silva (7-7).

Brown is rated at 1201 — 250 points above Silva's 951. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Matt Brown over Erick Silva.** The model gives Brown a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Constantinos Philippou (6-3) taking on Lorenz Larkin (4-5).

Larkin is rated at 1501 — 322 points above Philippou's 1179. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Larkin throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Larkin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Larkin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Constantinos Philippou over Lorenz Larkin.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Philippou at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Daron Cruickshank (6-5) taking on Erik Koch (4-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Koch at 1017 versus Cruickshank at 879. That 138-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Cruickshank's all-rounder game against Koch's knockout artist approach. Cruickshank is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Koch is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cruickshank throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Cruickshank is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Cruickshank has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Daron Cruickshank over Erik Koch.** The model gives Cruickshank a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Neil Magny (24-12) taking on Tim Means (15-13). Magny will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Magny is rated at 1270 — 398 points above Means's 872. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Magny looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Means is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Magny the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Means throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Magny is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Magny has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Neil Magny over Tim Means.** The model gives Magny a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Soa Palelei (4-2) taking on Ruan Potts (0-2). Palelei is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Palelei is rated at 1009 — 260 points above Potts's 749. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Palelei throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Palelei is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Potts has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Soa Palelei over Ruan Potts.** We're leaning Palelei here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Chris Cariaso (7-5) taking on Louis Smolka (8-8). Smolka is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Cariaso carries a modest Elo edge (931 to 874), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smolka throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Cariaso is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Smolka has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Louis Smolka over Chris Cariaso.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Smolka at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Ed Herman (13-11) taking on Rafael Natal (9-6-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Herman at 1045 versus Natal at 931. That 114-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Herman is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Natal is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Natal the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Natal throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Natal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Natal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rafael Natal over Ed Herman.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Natal at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Kyoji Horiguchi (8-1) taking on Darrell Montague (0-2). Montague is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Horiguchi is rated at 1528 — 755 points above Montague's 773. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Horiguchi rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Horiguchi throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Horiguchi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Montague has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kyoji Horiguchi over Darrell Montague.** We're leaning Horiguchi here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Zak Cummings (9-4) taking on Yan Cabral (2-2).

Cummings is rated at 1357 — 458 points above Cabral's 900. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cabral throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Cummings is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Cabral has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Zak Cummings over Yan Cabral.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cummings at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Johnny Eduardo (3-4) taking on Eddie Wineland (6-9).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Eduardo at 873, Wineland at 865. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Eduardo's all-rounder game against Wineland's striker approach. Eduardo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Wineland brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wineland throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Wineland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Eduardo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Eddie Wineland over Johnny Eduardo.** The model gives Wineland a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Nik Lentz (14-8-1) taking on Manvel Gamburyan (6-7). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Lentz.

Lentz is rated at 1159 — 187 points above Gamburyan's 972. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lentz throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Lentz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Gamburyan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nik Lentz over Manvel Gamburyan.** We're leaning Lentz here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Justin Salas (3-3) taking on Ben Wall (0-1).

Salas carries a modest Elo edge (843 to 770), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Salas throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Salas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Salas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Justin Salas over Ben Wall.** We're leaning Salas here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Albert Tumenov (5-2) taking on Anthony Lapsley (0-1).

Tumenov is rated at 1109 — 305 points above Lapsley's 805. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tumenov throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Tumenov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Lapsley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Albert Tumenov over Anthony Lapsley.** We're leaning Tumenov here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.