UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Jon Jones (21-1) taking on Glover Teixeira (16-6). Jones is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Jones is rated at 2161 — 566 points above Teixeira's 1596. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jones rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Jones is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Teixeira is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Teixeira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Teixeira throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Teixeira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Teixeira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jon Jones over Glover Teixeira. The model is firm on this one: Jones at 78%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Anthony Johnson (13-5) taking on Phil Davis (9-2).

Johnson is rated at 1708 — 281 points above Davis's 1427. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Johnson is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Davis looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Davis the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Davis throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Phil Davis over Anthony Johnson. We're leaning Davis here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Luke Rockhold (6-4) taking on Tim Boetsch (12-11). Rockhold is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Rockhold at 1302 versus Boetsch at 1174. That 129-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Rockhold's all-rounder game against Boetsch's knockout artist approach. Rockhold is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Boetsch is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rockhold throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Boetsch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Rockhold has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luke Rockhold over Tim Boetsch. We're leaning Rockhold here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Jim Miller (27-17) taking on Yancy Medeiros (6-7). Medeiros is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Miller is rated at 1213 — 214 points above Medeiros's 999. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Miller's wrestler game against Medeiros's knockout artist approach. Miller looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Medeiros is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Medeiros throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Medeiros has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jim Miller over Yancy Medeiros. The model gives Miller a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Max Holloway (22-8) taking on Andre Fili (12-11). Fili will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Holloway is rated at 1897 — 757 points above Fili's 1140. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fili throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Fili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Holloway has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Max Holloway over Andre Fili. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Holloway at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Joseph Benavidez (15-5) taking on Tim Elliott (9-11). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Elliott.

Benavidez carries a modest Elo edge (1291 to 1241), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Benavidez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Elliott looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Elliott the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Elliott throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Elliott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Elliott has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tim Elliott over Joseph Benavidez. We're leaning Elliott here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Takanori Gomi (4-8) taking on Isaac Vallie-Flagg (1-2).

Vallie-Flagg is rated at 939 — 208 points above Gomi's 732. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gomi throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Gomi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Gomi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Takanori Gomi over Isaac Vallie-Flagg. The model gives Gomi a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Bethe Correia (5-5-1) taking on Jessamyn Duke (1-2). Duke is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Correia at 883 versus Duke at 762. That 121-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Duke throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Duke is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Duke has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jessamyn Duke over Bethe Correia. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Duke at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Danny Castillo (7-6) taking on Charlie Brenneman (4-6).

Castillo is rated at 951 — 233 points above Brenneman's 717. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Castillo's wrestler game against Brenneman's striker approach. Castillo looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Brenneman brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Castillo throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Castillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Castillo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Danny Castillo over Charlie Brenneman. We're leaning Castillo here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Chris Beal (2-2) taking on Patrick Williams (1-2). Williams will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Beal at 811, Williams at 812. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Williams throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Williams is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Williams has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Beal over Patrick Williams. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Beal at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.