UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight championship matchup features Fabricio Werdum (12-6) taking on Travis Browne (9-7-1). Browne is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Werdum is rated at 1625 — 325 points above Browne's 1300. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Werdum's all-rounder game against Browne's knockout artist approach. Werdum is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Browne is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Werdum throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Werdum is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Werdum has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Fabricio Werdum over Travis Browne. The model gives Werdum a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Miesha Tate (7-7) taking on Liz Carmouche (5-5).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Tate at 1128, Carmouche at 1125. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Carmouche throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Tate is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Carmouche has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Liz Carmouche over Miesha Tate. The model gives Carmouche a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Donald Cerrone (23-14) taking on Edson Barboza (18-14).

Barboza carries a modest Elo edge (1310 to 1238), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Cerrone's all-rounder game against Barboza's knockout artist approach. Cerrone is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Barboza is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barboza throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Cerrone is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Cerrone has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Donald Cerrone over Edson Barboza. The model gives Cerrone a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Yoel Romero (9-4) taking on Brad Tavares (16-12).

Romero is rated at 1785 — 763 points above Tavares's 1023. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Romero throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Tavares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Romero has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brad Tavares over Yoel Romero. The model gives Tavares a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Khabib Nurmagomedov (13-0) taking on Rafael Dos Anjos (21-15).

Nurmagomedov is rated at 2088 — 645 points above Anjos's 1443. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Nurmagomedov rides a 12-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anjos throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Nurmagomedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Nurmagomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Khabib Nurmagomedov over Rafael Dos Anjos. We're leaning Nurmagomedov here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Thiago Alves (15-12) taking on Seth Baczynski (5-6). Baczynski is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Alves is rated at 1061 — 239 points above Baczynski's 822. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Alves is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Baczynski looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Baczynski the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alves throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Alves is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Alves has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thiago Alves over Seth Baczynski. We're leaning Alves here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Jorge Masvidal (12-10) taking on Pat Healy (0-5).

Masvidal is rated at 1642 — 853 points above Healy's 789. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Healy throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Masvidal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Masvidal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jorge Masvidal over Pat Healy. We're leaning Masvidal here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Alex White (4-6) taking on Estevan Payan (0-3).

White is rated at 940 — 243 points above Payan's 697. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Payan throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Payan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. White has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex White over Estevan Payan. The model gives White a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Caio Magalhaes (4-3) taking on Luke Zachrich (1-2).

Magalhaes is rated at 1202 — 325 points above Zachrich's 877. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magalhaes throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Magalhaes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Zachrich has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Caio Magalhaes over Luke Zachrich. We're leaning Magalhaes here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Jordan Mein (5-4) taking on Hernani Perpetuo (0-2).

Mein is rated at 1288 — 477 points above Perpetuo's 811. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mein throws significantly more leather — a 5.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Perpetuo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Perpetuo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jordan Mein over Hernani Perpetuo. We're leaning Mein here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Dustin Ortiz (8-6) taking on Ray Borg (7-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Ortiz at 1384 versus Borg at 1255. That 129-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Ortiz rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Ortiz's striker game against Borg's wrestler approach. Ortiz brings a versatile approach, while Borg looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ortiz throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortiz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Borg has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dustin Ortiz over Ray Borg. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ortiz at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Mirsad Bektic (6-4) taking on Chas Skelly (8-3). Skelly is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Skelly is rated at 1303 — 228 points above Bektic's 1075. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Skelly throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Skelly is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Skelly has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mirsad Bektic over Chas Skelly. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bektic at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Derrick Lewis (20-11) taking on Jack May (0-2).

Lewis is rated at 1493 — 750 points above May's 744. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. May throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. May is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. May has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Derrick Lewis over Jack May. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lewis at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.