UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Henderson 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Dan Henderson (9-8) taking on Mauricio Rua (11-11-1). Rua is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Henderson is rated at 1404 — 528 points above Rua's 876. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rua throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Rua is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Henderson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mauricio Rua over Dan Henderson. We're leaning Rua here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features CB Dollaway (11-8) taking on Cezar Ferreira (9-5).

Ferreira carries a modest Elo edge (1033 to 965), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dollaway throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Dollaway is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Dollaway has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: CB Dollaway over Cezar Ferreira. The model gives Dollaway a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Leonardo Santos (7-2-1) taking on Norman Parke (5-2-1). Santos will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Parke carries a modest Elo edge (1101 to 1039), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Santos's all-rounder game against Parke's striker approach. Santos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Parke brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Parke throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Parke is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Parke has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Norman Parke over Leonardo Santos. We're leaning Parke here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Fabio Maldonado (5-5) taking on Gian Villante (7-10).

Maldonado is rated at 1043 — 338 points above Villante's 705. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Maldonado's all-rounder game against Villante's striker approach. Maldonado is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Villante brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maldonado throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Villante is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Maldonado has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gian Villante over Fabio Maldonado. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Villante at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Michel Prazeres (10-3) taking on Mairbek Taisumov (7-1). Taisumov is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Taisumov is rated at 1362 — 206 points above Prazeres's 1157. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Taisumov has won 6 straight.

Stylistically this is Prazeres's wrestler game against Taisumov's striker approach. Prazeres looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Taisumov brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Taisumov throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Taisumov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Taisumov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mairbek Taisumov over Michel Prazeres. The model gives Taisumov a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Rony Jason (4-3) taking on Steven Siler (5-3). Jason will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Jason at 1010 versus Siler at 888. That 122-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Jason is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Siler looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Siler the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jason throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Siler is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Jason has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rony Jason over Steven Siler. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jason at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Thiago Santos (14-9) taking on Ronny Markes (3-1).

Santos is rated at 1292 — 375 points above Markes's 918. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Markes throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Markes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Markes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ronny Markes over Thiago Santos. We're leaning Markes here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Jussier Formiga (9-6) taking on Scott Jorgensen (4-7).

Formiga is rated at 1149 — 414 points above Jorgensen's 735. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Formiga looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Jorgensen is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Formiga the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jorgensen throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Formiga is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Formiga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jussier Formiga over Scott Jorgensen. We're leaning Formiga here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Kenny Robertson (4-4) taking on Thiago Perpetuo (1-1).

Robertson is rated at 1097 — 242 points above Perpetuo's 855. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perpetuo throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Perpetuo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Perpetuo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kenny Robertson over Thiago Perpetuo. The model gives Robertson a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Hans Stringer (1-1) taking on Francimar Barroso (4-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Barroso at 961 versus Stringer at 839. That 122-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barroso throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Barroso is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Stringer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Francimar Barroso over Hans Stringer. We're leaning Barroso here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Godofredo Pepey (5-5) taking on Noad Lahat (2-1). Pepey will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Pepey at 1026 versus Lahat at 919. That 107-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pepey throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Pepey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Lahat has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Godofredo Pepey over Noad Lahat. The model gives Pepey a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.