UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Johny Hendricks (13-7) taking on Robbie Lawler (14-10). Lawler is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Lawler is rated at 1297 — 228 points above Hendricks's 1068. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hendricks throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Hendricks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Lawler has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Johny Hendricks over Robbie Lawler.** We're leaning Hendricks here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Tyron Woodley (9-5-1) taking on Carlos Condit (9-9). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Condit.

Woodley is rated at 1461 — 296 points above Condit's 1165. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Woodley throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Condit is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Woodley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Carlos Condit over Tyron Woodley.** The model gives Condit a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Myles Jury (8-3) taking on Diego Sanchez (19-12).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Jury at 1141, Sanchez at 1139. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanchez throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Jury is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Jury has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Myles Jury over Diego Sanchez.** The model is firm on this one: Jury at 77%.

The Welterweight matchup features Hector Lombard (3-7) taking on Jake Shields (4-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Shields.

Shields is rated at 1232 — 267 points above Lombard's 964. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Lombard's all-rounder game against Shields's striker approach. Lombard is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Shields brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Shields throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Shields is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Shields has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jake Shields over Hector Lombard.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Shields at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ovince Saint Preux (15-12) taking on Nikita Krylov (11-9). Preux will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Krylov is rated at 1400 — 483 points above Preux's 917. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Preux is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Krylov is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Krylov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Krylov throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Krylov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Preux has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nikita Krylov over Ovince Saint Preux.** The model gives Krylov a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Kelvin Gastelum (13-10) taking on Rick Story (12-6).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Gastelum at 1340, Story at 1358. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Story has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Story throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Gastelum is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Story has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rick Story over Kelvin Gastelum.** The model gives Story a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Jessica Andrade (17-12) taking on Raquel Pennington (13-5). Pennington is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Pennington is rated at 1411 — 296 points above Andrade's 1115. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Pennington has won 6 straight.

Stylistically this is Andrade's knockout artist game against Pennington's all-rounder approach. Andrade is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Pennington is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Andrade throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Andrade is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Pennington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jessica Andrade over Raquel Pennington.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Andrade at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Dennis Bermudez (9-7) taking on Jimy Hettes (3-2). Hettes is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Bermudez at 1068 versus Hettes at 931. That 138-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bermudez throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Hettes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Hettes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jimy Hettes over Dennis Bermudez.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hettes at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Alex Garcia (5-4) taking on Sean Spencer (3-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Garcia at 1006 versus Spencer at 862. That 145-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Garcia's wrestler game against Spencer's striker approach. Garcia looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Spencer brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Garcia throws significantly more leather — a 7.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Spencer is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Garcia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alex Garcia over Sean Spencer.** We're leaning Garcia here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Francisco Trevino (1-1) taking on Renee Forte (1-2).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Trevino at 880, Forte at 864. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Forte throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Forte is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Trevino has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Renee Forte over Francisco Trevino.** The model gives Forte a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Justin Scoggins (4-4) taking on Will Campuzano (0-3). Campuzano is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Scoggins at 861 versus Campuzano at 763. That 98-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Scoggins throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Scoggins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Scoggins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Justin Scoggins over Will Campuzano.** The model is firm on this one: Scoggins at 77%.

The Middleweight matchup features Sean Strickland (16-7) taking on Robert McDaniel (1-1).

Strickland is rated at 1813 — 889 points above McDaniel's 924. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. McDaniel throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. McDaniel is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Strickland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sean Strickland over Robert McDaniel.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Strickland at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Robert Whiteford (2-2) taking on Daniel Pineda (5-7).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Whiteford at 959, Pineda at 979. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pineda throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Pineda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Pineda has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Daniel Pineda over Robert Whiteford.** We're leaning Pineda here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.