UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape: Predictions & Analysis

The Flyweight matchup features Manel Kape (6-3) taking on Brandon Royval (7-4). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Royval.

Kape is rated at 1586 — 272 points above Royval's 1314. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Kape's all-rounder game against Royval's knockout artist approach. Kape is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Royval is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Royval throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Royval is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Kape has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Manel Kape over Brandon Royval. The model gives Kape a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Kevin Vallejos (2-0) taking on Giga Chikadze (8-3). Chikadze is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Vallejos is rated at 1367 — 217 points above Chikadze's 1150. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vallejos throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Vallejos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Chikadze has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kevin Vallejos over Giga Chikadze. The model gives Vallejos a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Cezary Oleksiejczuk (0-0) taking on Cesar Almeida (3-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Oleksiejczuk at 1137, Almeida at 1107. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Almeida throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Almeida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Oleksiejczuk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cezary Oleksiejczuk over Cesar Almeida. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Oleksiejczuk at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Melquizael Costa (6-2) taking on Morgan Charriere (3-2). Costa is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Costa is rated at 1550 — 381 points above Charriere's 1168. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Costa rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Costa looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Charriere is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Costa the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Costa throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Charriere is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Charriere has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Melquizael Costa over Morgan Charriere. The model gives Costa a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Kennedy Nzechukwu (8-6) taking on Marcus Buchecha (0-1). Nzechukwu is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Nzechukwu at 1071 versus Buchecha at 962. That 110-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nzechukwu throws significantly more leather — a 5.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Buchecha is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Nzechukwu has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kennedy Nzechukwu over Marcus Buchecha. We're leaning Nzechukwu here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Catch Weight matchup features King Green (13-12-1) taking on Lance Gibson Jr. (0-0).

Green is rated at 1176 — 219 points above Jr.'s 957. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Green throws significantly more leather — a 9.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Green is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Jr. has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: King Green over Lance Gibson Jr.. The model gives Green a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Yaroslav Amosov (0-0) taking on Neil Magny (24-12). Magny is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Magny carries a modest Elo edge (1270 to 1208), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magny throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Magny is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Amosov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Neil Magny over Yaroslav Amosov. We're leaning Magny here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Joanderson Brito (5-3) taking on Isaac Thomson (0-0). Brito will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Brito is rated at 1283 — 316 points above Thomson's 968. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brito throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Brito is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Thomson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joanderson Brito over Isaac Thomson. The model gives Brito a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Steven Asplund (0-0) taking on Sean Sharaf (0-1).

Asplund is rated at 1067 — 313 points above Sharaf's 754. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sharaf throws significantly more leather — a 7.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Sharaf is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Asplund has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sean Sharaf over Steven Asplund. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sharaf at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Luana Santos (4-1) taking on Melissa Croden (1-0). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Croden.

Santos is rated at 1277 — 213 points above Croden's 1064. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Croden throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Croden is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luana Santos over Melissa Croden. We're leaning Santos here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Guilherme Pat (0-0) taking on Allen Frye Jr. (0-0).

Pat is rated at 1085 — 170 points above Jr.'s 915. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jr. throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Jr. is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jr. has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Allen Frye Jr. over Guilherme Pat. The model gives Jr. a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Jamey-Lyn Horth (3-2) taking on Tereza Bleda (1-1). Bleda is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Horth is rated at 1183 — 282 points above Bleda's 901. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Horth throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Bleda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Horth has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tereza Bleda over Jamey-Lyn Horth. The model gives Bleda a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.