UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mousasi: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Lyoto Machida (15-8) taking on Gegard Mousasi (8-3).

Mousasi is rated at 1761 — 268 points above Machida's 1493. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Mousasi has won 4 straight.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mousasi throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Machida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Mousasi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Lyoto Machida over Gegard Mousasi.** The model gives Machida a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Jacare Souza (9-6) taking on Francis Carmont (6-2). Carmont is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Souza at 1187, Carmont at 1167. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Souza is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Carmont looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Carmont the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Souza throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Souza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Souza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jacare Souza over Francis Carmont.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Souza at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Erick Silva (7-7) taking on Takenori Sato (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Silva at 951 versus Sato at 857. That 94-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Sato has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Erick Silva over Takenori Sato.** The model is firm on this one: Silva at 76%.

The Welterweight matchup features Nicholas Musoke (3-2) taking on Viscardi Andrade (2-1).

Andrade is rated at 1141 — 205 points above Musoke's 937. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Andrade throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Musoke is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.8 more per 15 minutes. Andrade has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Viscardi Andrade over Nicholas Musoke.** We're leaning Andrade here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Charles Oliveira (23-11) taking on Andy Ogle (1-4). Oliveira is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Oliveira is rated at 1846 — 1122 points above Ogle's 724. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Oliveira's wrestler game against Ogle's striker approach. Oliveira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Ogle brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ogle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Ogle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Andy Ogle over Charles Oliveira.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ogle at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Proctor (4-3) taking on Cristiano Marcello (1-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Proctor at 947 versus Marcello at 848. That 99-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marcello throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Marcello is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Proctor has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joe Proctor over Cristiano Marcello.** The model gives Proctor a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Rodrigo Damm (3-3) taking on Ivan Jorge (2-1). Jorge is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Jorge carries a modest Elo edge (926 to 858), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jorge throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Jorge is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Damm has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ivan Jorge over Rodrigo Damm.** The model gives Jorge a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Francisco Trinaldo (18-7) taking on Jesse Ronson (0-4).

Trinaldo is rated at 1329 — 644 points above Ronson's 685. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Trinaldo throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Trinaldo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Ronson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Francisco Trinaldo over Jesse Ronson.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Trinaldo at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Iuri Alcantara (10-6) taking on Wilson Reis (7-5). Alcantara is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Reis carries a modest Elo edge (1083 to 1046), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Alcantara's knockout artist game against Reis's wrestler approach. Alcantara is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Reis looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alcantara throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Reis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Reis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Wilson Reis over Iuri Alcantara.** The model gives Reis a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Felipe Arantes (5-5-1) taking on Maximo Blanco (4-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Blanco at 1013 versus Arantes at 925. That 87-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arantes throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Blanco is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Blanco has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Felipe Arantes over Maximo Blanco.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Arantes at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Ildemar Alcantara (4-2) taking on Albert Tumenov (5-2). Alcantara is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Tumenov is rated at 1109 — 181 points above Alcantara's 929. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Alcantara's all-rounder game against Tumenov's striker approach. Alcantara is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Tumenov brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alcantara throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Alcantara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Tumenov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ildemar Alcantara over Albert Tumenov.** The model gives Alcantara a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Zubaira Tukhugov (5-2-1) taking on Douglas Silva de Andrade (7-5).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Tukhugov at 1132, Andrade at 1146. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Tukhugov's striker game against Andrade's all-rounder approach. Tukhugov brings a versatile approach, while Andrade is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Andrade throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Andrade is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Andrade has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Zubaira Tukhugov over Douglas Silva de Andrade.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tukhugov at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.