UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Flyweight matchup features Demetrious Johnson (15-1-1) taking on Joseph Benavidez (15-5).

Johnson is rated at 1603 — 312 points above Benavidez's 1291. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 13-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Johnson's wrestler game against Benavidez's knockout artist approach. Johnson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Benavidez is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Demetrious Johnson over Joseph Benavidez.** We're leaning Johnson here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Urijah Faber (11-6) taking on Michael McDonald (6-2). McDonald is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Faber at 1297 versus McDonald at 1193. That 104-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Faber's wrestler game against McDonald's knockout artist approach. Faber looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while McDonald is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Faber throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Faber is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Faber has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Urijah Faber over Michael McDonald.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Faber at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Chad Mendes (9-4) taking on Nik Lentz (14-8-1). Lentz is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Mendes is rated at 1377 — 218 points above Lentz's 1159. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Mendes's knockout artist game against Lentz's wrestler approach. Mendes is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Lentz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mendes throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Lentz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Mendes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chad Mendes over Nik Lentz.** We're leaning Mendes here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Lauzon (14-12) taking on Mac Danzig (5-7).

There's a real Elo separation here: Lauzon at 1036 versus Danzig at 920. That 116-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Lauzon is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Danzig is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Lauzon the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Danzig throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Danzig is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Lauzon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joe Lauzon over Mac Danzig.** The model gives Lauzon a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Ryan LaFlare (7-2) taking on Court McGee (11-12).

There's a real Elo separation here: LaFlare at 1174 versus McGee at 1037. That 137-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is LaFlare's striker game against McGee's all-rounder approach. LaFlare brings a versatile approach, while McGee is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGee throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. LaFlare is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. LaFlare has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ryan LaFlare over Court McGee.** The model gives LaFlare a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Edson Barboza (18-13) taking on Danny Castillo (7-6). Barboza is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Barboza is rated at 1142 — 191 points above Castillo's 951. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Barboza's striker game against Castillo's wrestler approach. Barboza brings a versatile approach, while Castillo looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barboza throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Castillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Barboza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Edson Barboza over Danny Castillo.** The model gives Barboza a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features King Green (13-12-1) taking on Pat Healy (0-4).

Green is rated at 1176 — 359 points above Healy's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Green throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Healy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Green has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: King Green over Pat Healy.** We're leaning Green here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Zach Makovsky (3-3) taking on Scott Jorgensen (4-7).

Makovsky is rated at 996 — 260 points above Jorgensen's 735. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Makovsky's striker game against Jorgensen's all-rounder approach. Makovsky brings a versatile approach, while Jorgensen is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jorgensen throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Jorgensen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Makovsky has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Scott Jorgensen over Zach Makovsky.** The model gives Jorgensen a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Sam Stout (9-10) taking on Cody McKenzie (3-3). McKenzie is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: McKenzie at 871 versus Stout at 756. That 115-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Stout's striker game against McKenzie's wrestler approach. Stout brings a versatile approach, while McKenzie looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stout throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. McKenzie is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. McKenzie has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cody McKenzie over Sam Stout.** The model gives McKenzie a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Abel Trujillo (6-3) taking on Roger Bowling (0-1).

Trujillo is rated at 1031 — 204 points above Bowling's 827. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bowling throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Bowling is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Bowling has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Abel Trujillo over Roger Bowling.** The model gives Trujillo a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Alptekin Ozkilic (1-2) taking on Darren Uyenoyama (2-1).

Uyenoyama is rated at 961 — 151 points above Ozkilic's 811. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Uyenoyama throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Uyenoyama is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Ozkilic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Darren Uyenoyama over Alptekin Ozkilic.** The model gives Uyenoyama a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.