UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Vitor Belfort (15-9) taking on Dan Henderson (9-8).

There's a real Elo separation here: Henderson at 1404 versus Belfort at 1255. That 149-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Belfort's knockout artist game against Henderson's all-rounder approach. Belfort is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Henderson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Henderson throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Henderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Henderson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Vitor Belfort over Dan Henderson.** The model gives Belfort a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Cezar Ferreira (9-5) taking on Daniel Sarafian (2-3). Ferreira is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Ferreira at 1033 versus Sarafian at 888. That 145-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Ferreira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Sarafian is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Ferreira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferreira throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Sarafian is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Sarafian has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cezar Ferreira over Daniel Sarafian.** The model gives Ferreira a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Rafael Cavalcante (1-3) taking on Igor Pokrajac (4-7).

Cavalcante is rated at 942 — 178 points above Pokrajac's 764. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cavalcante throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Pokrajac is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Cavalcante has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Igor Pokrajac over Rafael Cavalcante.** The model gives Pokrajac a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Brandon Thatch (2-3) taking on Paulo Thiago (5-7). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Thatch.

Thatch carries a modest Elo edge (861 to 811), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Thatch's striker game against Thiago's wrestler approach. Thatch brings a versatile approach, while Thiago looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Thatch throws significantly more leather — a 10.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Thatch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 8.6 more per 15 minutes. Thatch has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brandon Thatch over Paulo Thiago.** We're leaning Thatch here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Ryan LaFlare (7-2) taking on Santiago Ponzinibbio (12-7).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — LaFlare at 1174, Ponzinibbio at 1177. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. LaFlare throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. LaFlare is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.0 more per 15 minutes. Ponzinibbio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ryan LaFlare over Santiago Ponzinibbio.** We're leaning LaFlare here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Jeremy Stephens (15-18) taking on Rony Jason (4-3).

Jason carries a modest Elo edge (1010 to 941), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Stephens looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Jason is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Stephens the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jason throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Stephens is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Stephens has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rony Jason over Jeremy Stephens.** The model gives Jason a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Sam Sicilia (5-6) taking on Godofredo Pepey (5-5). Pepey will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Pepey is rated at 1026 — 199 points above Sicilia's 827. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sicilia throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Sicilia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Sicilia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Godofredo Pepey over Sam Sicilia.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pepey at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Omari Akhmedov (9-4-1) taking on Thiago Perpetuo (1-1).

Akhmedov is rated at 1303 — 448 points above Perpetuo's 855. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perpetuo throws significantly more leather — a 6.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Perpetuo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Akhmedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Thiago Perpetuo over Omari Akhmedov.** The model gives Perpetuo a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Thiago Tavares (10-6-1) taking on Justin Salas (3-3).

Tavares is rated at 1124 — 281 points above Salas's 843. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Tavares's wrestler game against Salas's striker approach. Tavares looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Salas brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Salas throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Tavares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Salas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Thiago Tavares over Justin Salas.** The model gives Tavares a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Adriano Martins (4-2) taking on Daron Cruickshank (6-5).

Martins is rated at 1070 — 190 points above Cruickshank's 879. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Martins is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Cruickshank looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Cruickshank the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cruickshank throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Cruickshank is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Martins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Daron Cruickshank over Adriano Martins.** The model gives Cruickshank a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Dustin Ortiz (8-5) taking on Jose Maria (0-1).

Ortiz is rated at 1329 — 521 points above Maria's 808. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ortiz rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maria throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Maria is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Ortiz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jose Maria over Dustin Ortiz.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Maria at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.