UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Jon Jones (21-1) taking on Alexander Gustafsson (10-7). Jones will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jones is rated at 2161 — 992 points above Gustafsson's 1169. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jones rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Jones looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gustafsson is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Jones the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gustafsson throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Gustafsson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Jones has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jon Jones over Alexander Gustafsson. We're leaning Jones here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Renan Barao (9-7) taking on Eddie Wineland (6-9).

Wineland carries a modest Elo edge (865 to 821), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Barao's all-rounder game against Wineland's striker approach. Barao is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Wineland brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barao throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Barao is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Barao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Renan Barao over Eddie Wineland. We're leaning Barao here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Brendan Schaub (6-4) taking on Matt Mitrione (9-4). Mitrione will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Mitrione carries a modest Elo edge (1200 to 1154), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Schaub's wrestler game against Mitrione's striker approach. Schaub looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Mitrione brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mitrione throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Schaub is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Mitrione has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brendan Schaub over Matt Mitrione. The model gives Schaub a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Francis Carmont (6-2) taking on Constantinos Philippou (6-3). Carmont is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Carmont at 1167, Philippou at 1179. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Carmont looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Philippou is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Carmont the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Philippou throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Carmont is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Philippou has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Francis Carmont over Constantinos Philippou. The model gives Carmont a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Khabib Nurmagomedov (12-0) taking on Pat Healy (0-4). Healy is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Nurmagomedov is rated at 2060 — 1243 points above Healy's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Nurmagomedov rides a 12-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Healy throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Nurmagomedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Nurmagomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Khabib Nurmagomedov over Pat Healy. The model is firm on this one: Nurmagomedov at 77%.

The Lightweight matchup features Myles Jury (8-3) taking on Mike Ricci (1-1). Ricci is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Jury is rated at 1141 — 157 points above Ricci's 985. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jury throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Jury is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Jury has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Myles Jury over Mike Ricci. We're leaning Jury here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Wilson Reis (7-5) taking on Ivan Menjivar (4-4).

Reis is rated at 1083 — 187 points above Menjivar's 895. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Menjivar throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Menjivar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Reis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Wilson Reis over Ivan Menjivar. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Reis at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Stephen Thompson (12-8-1) taking on Chris Clements (2-1). Thompson is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Thompson is rated at 1329 — 297 points above Clements's 1031. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Thompson throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Thompson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Thompson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stephen Thompson over Chris Clements. We're leaning Thompson here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Mitch Gagnon (4-3) taking on Dustin Kimura (2-2). Kimura is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Gagnon carries a modest Elo edge (955 to 907), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gagnon throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Gagnon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Gagnon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mitch Gagnon over Dustin Kimura. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gagnon at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features John Makdessi (11-8) taking on Renee Forte (1-2). Forte will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Makdessi at 989 versus Forte at 864. That 125-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Makdessi throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Forte is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Makdessi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Makdessi over Renee Forte. The model gives Makdessi a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Michel Prazeres (10-3) taking on Jesse Ronson (0-4). Ronson is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Prazeres is rated at 1157 — 472 points above Ronson's 685. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Prazeres throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Prazeres is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Ronson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michel Prazeres over Jesse Ronson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Prazeres at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Alex Caceres (16-12) taking on Roland Delorme (3-2).

Caceres is rated at 1232 — 332 points above Delorme's 900. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Caceres's knockout artist game against Delorme's wrestler approach. Caceres is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Delorme looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Caceres throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Delorme is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Caceres has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Caceres over Roland Delorme. The model gives Caceres a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Daniel Omielanczuk (4-4) taking on Nandor Guelmino (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Omielanczuk at 960 versus Guelmino at 873. That 87-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guelmino throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Guelmino is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Guelmino has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Omielanczuk over Nandor Guelmino. The model gives Omielanczuk a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.