UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Carlos Prates (5-1) taking on Neil Magny (24-12). Magny is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Prates is rated at 1806 — 536 points above Magny's 1270. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Prates's striker game against Magny's all-rounder approach. Prates brings a versatile approach, while Magny is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Prates throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Magny is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Prates has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Carlos Prates over Neil Magny.** The model gives Prates a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Reinier de Ridder (4-0) taking on Gerald Meerschaert (12-12). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Ridder.

Ridder is rated at 1433 — 566 points above Meerschaert's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ridder rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Meerschaert throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Meerschaert is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Ridder has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gerald Meerschaert over Reinier de Ridder.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Meerschaert at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Gaston Bolanos (2-1) taking on Cortavious Romious (0-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Bolanos.

Bolanos carries a modest Elo edge (867 to 829), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bolanos throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Romious is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Romious has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cortavious Romious over Gaston Bolanos.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Romious at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Gillian Robertson (12-6) taking on Luana Pinheiro (3-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Robertson.

Robertson is rated at 1352 — 438 points above Pinheiro's 914. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Robertson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Robertson throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Robertson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Robertson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gillian Robertson over Luana Pinheiro.** The model gives Robertson a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Mansur Abdul-Malik (2-0) taking on Dusko Todorovic (3-6). Abdul-Malik will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Abdul-Malik is rated at 1208 — 337 points above Todorovic's 871. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Todorovic throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Todorovic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Abdul-Malik has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mansur Abdul-Malik over Dusko Todorovic.** We're leaning Abdul-Malik here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Denise Gomes (5-2) taking on Karolina Kowalkiewicz (9-9).

Gomes is rated at 1370 — 499 points above Kowalkiewicz's 871. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Gomes rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kowalkiewicz throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Gomes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Kowalkiewicz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Denise Gomes over Karolina Kowalkiewicz.** We're leaning Gomes here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (11-5-1) taking on Zachary Scroggin (0-0). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Scroggin.

There's a real Elo separation here: Santos at 1041 versus Scroggin at 958. That 83-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Scroggin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos over Zachary Scroggin.** The model gives Santos a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Charles Radtke (3-2) taking on Matthew Semelsberger (5-5). Semelsberger is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Radtke is rated at 1082 — 220 points above Semelsberger's 861. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Radtke brings a versatile approach, while Semelsberger is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Semelsberger the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Radtke throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Semelsberger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Radtke has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Charles Radtke over Matthew Semelsberger.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Radtke at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Da'Mon Blackshear (5-3-1) taking on Cody Stamann (7-6-1). Blackshear is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Blackshear is rated at 1216 — 284 points above Stamann's 932. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Blackshear rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Blackshear's wrestler game against Stamann's striker approach. Blackshear looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Stamann brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stamann throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Blackshear is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Stamann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Da'Mon Blackshear over Cody Stamann.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Blackshear at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Tresean Gore (2-3) taking on Antonio Trocoli (0-2). Trocoli is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Gore at 916 versus Trocoli at 804. That 112-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gore throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Gore is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Gore has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tresean Gore over Antonio Trocoli.** The model gives Gore a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Melissa Mullins (2-1) taking on Klaudia Sygula (1-1).

Sygula carries a modest Elo edge (1075 to 1006), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mullins throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Mullins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Sygula has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Klaudia Sygula over Melissa Mullins.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sygula at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.