UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Carlos Condit (9-9) taking on Martin Kampmann (11-5). Condit is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Kampmann is rated at 1358 — 192 points above Condit's 1165. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Condit throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Kampmann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Kampmann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Martin Kampmann over Carlos Condit.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kampmann at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Rafael Dos Anjos (21-14) taking on Donald Cerrone (23-13). Cerrone is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Anjos is rated at 1282 — 228 points above Cerrone's 1054. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Anjos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Cerrone is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Anjos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerrone throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Anjos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Anjos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rafael Dos Anjos over Donald Cerrone.** We're leaning Anjos here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Kelvin Gastelum (13-10) taking on Brian Melancon (1-0).

Gastelum is rated at 1340 — 286 points above Melancon's 1053. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Melancon throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Melancon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Melancon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kelvin Gastelum over Brian Melancon.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gastelum at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Court McGee (11-12) taking on Robert Whittaker (17-6).

Whittaker is rated at 1528 — 491 points above McGee's 1037. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is McGee's all-rounder game against Whittaker's striker approach. McGee is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Whittaker brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGee throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. McGee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Whittaker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Court McGee over Robert Whittaker.** The model gives McGee a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Takeya Mizugaki (8-5) taking on Erik Perez (6-2).

Perez is rated at 1303 — 308 points above Mizugaki's 995. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Mizugaki's striker game against Perez's wrestler approach. Mizugaki brings a versatile approach, while Perez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perez throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Mizugaki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Erik Perez over Takeya Mizugaki.** The model gives Perez a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Brad Tavares (16-10) taking on Robert McDaniel (1-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Tavares at 925, McDaniel at 924. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tavares throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Tavares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. McDaniel has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brad Tavares over Robert McDaniel.** The model gives Tavares a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Dylan Andrews (2-2) taking on Papy Abedi (1-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Abedi at 865 versus Andrews at 780. That 85-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Andrews throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Abedi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Abedi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dylan Andrews over Papy Abedi.** The model gives Andrews a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Brandon Thatch (2-3) taking on Justin Edwards (2-4). Thatch is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Thatch carries a modest Elo edge (861 to 798), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Thatch's striker game against Edwards's wrestler approach. Thatch brings a versatile approach, while Edwards looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edwards throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Edwards is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Thatch has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Justin Edwards over Brandon Thatch.** The model gives Edwards a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Darren Elkins (19-10) taking on Hatsu Hioki (3-4).

Elkins is rated at 1113 — 238 points above Hioki's 875. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Elkins is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Hioki is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Elkins the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Elkins throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Elkins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Hioki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Hatsu Hioki over Darren Elkins.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hioki at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Jason High (2-2) taking on James Head (2-2). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Head.

High is rated at 1084 — 162 points above Head's 922. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Head throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Head is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Head has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: James Head over Jason High.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Head at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Zak Cummings (9-4) taking on Ben Alloway (1-1).

Cummings is rated at 1357 — 459 points above Alloway's 898. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alloway throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Alloway is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Cummings has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ben Alloway over Zak Cummings.** The model gives Alloway a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Roger Bowling (0-1) taking on Abel Trujillo (6-3).

Trujillo is rated at 1031 — 204 points above Bowling's 827. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bowling throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Bowling is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Bowling has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Abel Trujillo over Roger Bowling.** We're leaning Trujillo here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.