UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman lands on Saturday, July 6, 2013 in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA with 11 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Weidman vs Anderson SilvaMiddleweight | Chris Weidman | Confident | 71% |
| Frankie Edgar vs Charles OliveiraFeatherweight | Frankie Edgar | Toss-up | 52% |
| Tim Kennedy vs Roger GracieMiddleweight | Roger Gracie | Lean | 55% |
| Mark Munoz vs Tim BoetschMiddleweight | Mark Munoz | Lean | 56% |
| Cub Swanson vs Dennis SiverFeatherweight | Dennis Siver | Lean | 59% |
| Andrew Craig vs Chris LebenMiddleweight | Andrew Craig | Lean | 60% |
| Norman Parke vs Kazuki TokudomeLightweight | Norman Parke | Lean | 63% |
| Gabriel Gonzaga vs Dave HermanHeavyweight | Gabriel Gonzaga | Lean | 63% |
| Edson Barboza vs Rafaello OliveiraLightweight | Edson Barboza | Lean | 65% |
| Brian Melancon vs Seth BaczynskiWelterweight | Seth Baczynski | Strong | 77% |
| Mike Pierce vs David MitchellWelterweight | Mike Pierce | Strong | 76% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Chris Weidman vs Anderson Silva
The Middleweight matchup features Chris Weidman (12-7) taking on Anderson Silva (17-6).
There's a real Elo separation here: Silva at 1154 versus Weidman at 1060. That 94-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
Stylistically this is Weidman's wrestler game against Silva's knockout artist approach. Weidman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Weidman throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Weidman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.1 more per 15 minutes. Weidman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Chris Weidman over Anderson Silva. We're leaning Weidman here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Frankie Edgar vs Charles Oliveira
The Featherweight matchup features Frankie Edgar (18-10-1) taking on Charles Oliveira (23-11). Oliveira is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 6-inch reach advantage.
Oliveira is rated at 1846 — 661 points above Edgar's 1185. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Edgar is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Oliveira is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Oliveira the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Edgar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Frankie Edgar over Charles Oliveira. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Edgar at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Tim Kennedy vs Roger Gracie
The Middleweight matchup features Tim Kennedy (3-1) taking on Roger Gracie (0-0). Gracie is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.
Kennedy is rated at 1227 — 312 points above Gracie's 915. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Gracie throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gracie is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gracie has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Roger Gracie over Tim Kennedy. The model gives Gracie a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.
Mark Munoz vs Tim Boetsch
The Middleweight matchup features Mark Munoz (8-6) taking on Tim Boetsch (12-11). Boetsch will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
There's a real Elo separation here: Boetsch at 1174 versus Munoz at 1082. That 91-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Munoz throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Boetsch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Boetsch has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Mark Munoz over Tim Boetsch. The model gives Munoz a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.
Cub Swanson vs Dennis Siver
The Featherweight matchup features Cub Swanson (14-10) taking on Dennis Siver (11-8).
Swanson carries a modest Elo edge (1255 to 1214), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Siver throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Swanson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Siver has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Dennis Siver over Cub Swanson. The model gives Siver a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.
Andrew Craig vs Chris Leben
The Middleweight matchup features Andrew Craig (3-3) taking on Chris Leben (12-9). Craig is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Craig at 852, Leben at 855. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
The style clash matters here: Craig brings a versatile approach, while Leben is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Leben the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Leben throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Leben is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Leben has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Andrew Craig over Chris Leben. The model gives Craig a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.
Norman Parke vs Kazuki Tokudome
The Lightweight matchup features Norman Parke (5-2-1) taking on Kazuki Tokudome (1-2). Tokudome will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
Parke is rated at 1101 — 260 points above Tokudome's 841. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Parke throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Parke is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Parke has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Norman Parke over Kazuki Tokudome. The model gives Parke a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.
Gabriel Gonzaga vs Dave Herman
The Heavyweight matchup features Gabriel Gonzaga (12-9) taking on Dave Herman (1-3).
There's a real Elo separation here: Gonzaga at 967 versus Herman at 849. That 118-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Herman throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Gonzaga is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Gonzaga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Gabriel Gonzaga over Dave Herman. The model gives Gonzaga a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.
Edson Barboza vs Rafaello Oliveira
The Lightweight matchup features Edson Barboza (18-13) taking on Rafaello Oliveira (2-5). Barboza is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.
Barboza is rated at 1142 — 323 points above Oliveira's 818. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Barboza's striker game against Oliveira's wrestler approach. Barboza brings a versatile approach, while Oliveira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Barboza throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Oliveira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Edson Barboza over Rafaello Oliveira. The model gives Barboza a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.
Brian Melancon vs Seth Baczynski
The Welterweight matchup features Brian Melancon (1-0) taking on Seth Baczynski (5-5).
Melancon is rated at 1053 — 257 points above Baczynski's 796. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Baczynski throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Baczynski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Melancon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Seth Baczynski over Brian Melancon. The model is firm on this one: Baczynski at 77%.
Mike Pierce vs David Mitchell
The Welterweight matchup features Mike Pierce (9-4) taking on David Mitchell (1-3). Mitchell is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.
Pierce is rated at 1171 — 268 points above Mitchell's 903. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Pierce throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Pierce is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Pierce has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Mike Pierce over David Mitchell. The model is firm on this one: Pierce at 76%.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.