UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Rashad Evans (14-7-1) taking on Dan Henderson (9-8).

Henderson is rated at 1404 — 283 points above Evans's 1121. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Evans's striker game against Henderson's all-rounder approach. Evans brings a versatile approach, while Henderson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Henderson throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Evans is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Evans has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rashad Evans over Dan Henderson. The model gives Evans a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Stipe Miocic (14-4) taking on Roy Nelson (9-9). Miocic is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Miocic is rated at 1847 — 717 points above Nelson's 1129. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Miocic brings a versatile approach, while Nelson is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Nelson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miocic throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Miocic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Miocic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stipe Miocic over Roy Nelson. The model is firm on this one: Miocic at 77%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ryan Jimmo (3-3) taking on Igor Pokrajac (4-7).

Jimmo is rated at 974 — 210 points above Pokrajac's 764. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Jimmo's striker game against Pokrajac's all-rounder approach. Jimmo brings a versatile approach, while Pokrajac is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pokrajac throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Pokrajac is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Pokrajac has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan Jimmo over Igor Pokrajac. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jimmo at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Alexis Davis (7-6) taking on Rosi Sexton (0-1).

Davis is rated at 1030 — 219 points above Sexton's 810. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sexton throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Sexton is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sexton has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexis Davis over Rosi Sexton. The model gives Davis a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Shawn Jordan (6-3) taking on Pat Barry (5-6).

Jordan is rated at 1164 — 254 points above Barry's 910. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jordan rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Jordan brings a versatile approach, while Barry is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Barry the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jordan throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Jordan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Barry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shawn Jordan over Pat Barry. We're leaning Jordan here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Jake Shields (4-2) taking on Tyron Woodley (9-5-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Shields.

Woodley is rated at 1461 — 230 points above Shields's 1232. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Shields's striker game against Woodley's all-rounder approach. Shields brings a versatile approach, while Woodley is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Woodley throws significantly more leather — a 21.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Shields is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Woodley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tyron Woodley over Jake Shields. We're leaning Woodley here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features James Krause (8-4) taking on Sam Stout (9-10). Krause is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Krause is rated at 1436 — 680 points above Stout's 756. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Krause is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Stout brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Krause the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stout throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Stout is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Krause has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: James Krause over Sam Stout. The model gives Krause a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Sean Pierson (3-2) taking on Kenny Robertson (4-4). Pierson is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Pierson at 1239 versus Robertson at 1097. That 142-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Pierson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Robertson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Robertson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pierson throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Robertson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Pierson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sean Pierson over Kenny Robertson. The model gives Pierson a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Roland Delorme (3-2) taking on Edwin Figueroa (2-3). Delorme is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Delorme carries a modest Elo edge (900 to 854), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Delorme's wrestler game against Figueroa's knockout artist approach. Delorme looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Figueroa is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Delorme throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Delorme is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Figueroa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Roland Delorme over Edwin Figueroa. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Delorme at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Mitch Clarke (2-4) taking on John Maguire (2-2). Clarke will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Maguire at 897 versus Clarke at 803. That 95-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maguire throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Maguire is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Maguire has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Maguire over Mitch Clarke. The model gives Maguire a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Yves Jabouin (5-4) taking on Dustin Pague (1-4). Pague is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Jabouin at 845 versus Pague at 755. That 90-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Jabouin's striker game against Pague's wrestler approach. Jabouin brings a versatile approach, while Pague looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jabouin throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Jabouin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Jabouin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yves Jabouin over Dustin Pague. The model gives Jabouin a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.