UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum
Saturday, June 8, 2013·Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil
Model Record: 10/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Heavyweight✓
Fabricio Werdum won by Submission (R2)
Werdum 64%36% Nogueira
LEAN
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: +119(favors Werdum)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors Werdum)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Werdum)
Welterweight✗
Leonardo Santos won by Submission (R2)
Santos 33%67% Macario
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -0(favors Macario)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Macario)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Macario)
Light Heavyweight✓
Thiago Silva won by KO/TKO (R1)
Silva 68%32% Cavalcante
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +247(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Silva)
Welterweight✓
Erick Silva won by Submission (R1)
Silva 74%26% High
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +301(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Silva)
Middleweight✓
Daniel Sarafian won by Submission (R1)
Sarafian 54%46% Mendez
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -63(favors Mendez)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Sarafian)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Mendez)
Featherweight✓
Rony Jason won by Submission (R1)
Jason 60%40% Wilkinson
LEAN
→Elo gap: +143(favors Jason)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Wilkinson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Wilkinson)
Bantamweight✓
Raphael Assuncao won by Submission (R2)
Assuncao 59%41% Lee
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +289(favors Assuncao)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Assuncao)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Lee)
Featherweight✓
Felipe Arantes won by KO/TKO (R1)
Arantes 58%42% Pepey
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +18(favors Arantes)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Arantes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Arantes)
Welterweight✓
Ildemar Alcantara won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Alcantara 52%48% Silva
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +102(favors Alcantara)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Alcantara)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.9(favors Alcantara)
Featherweight✓
Rodrigo Damm won by Decision - Split (R3)
Damm 65%35% Hirota
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +116(favors Damm)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.3(favors Damm)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Hirota)
Middleweight✓
Caio Magalhaes won by Submission (R2)
Magalhaes 60%40% Vemola
LEAN
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -51(favors Vemola)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Magalhaes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Magalhaes)
Middleweight✗
Antonio Braga Neto won by Submission (R1)
Neto 45%55% Smith
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Smith)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Smith)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Smith)