UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Fabricio Werdum (11-6) taking on Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (5-5).

Werdum is rated at 1495 — 487 points above Nogueira's 1008. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Werdum's striker game against Nogueira's submission artist approach. Werdum brings a versatile approach, while Nogueira is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Werdum throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Werdum is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Nogueira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Fabricio Werdum over Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira.** The model gives Werdum a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Leonardo Santos (7-2-1) taking on William Macario (1-2).

Santos is rated at 1039 — 251 points above Macario's 789. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Macario throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Macario is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Macario has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: William Macario over Leonardo Santos.** We're leaning Macario here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Thiago Silva (6-3) taking on Rafael Cavalcante (1-3).

Silva is rated at 1362 — 420 points above Cavalcante's 942. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Cavalcante has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Thiago Silva over Rafael Cavalcante.** We're leaning Silva here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Erick Silva (7-7) taking on Jason High (2-2). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Silva.

There's a real Elo separation here: High at 1084 versus Silva at 951. That 133-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Erick Silva over Jason High.** We're leaning Silva here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Daniel Sarafian (2-3) taking on Eddie Mendez (0-0).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Sarafian at 888, Mendez at 870. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sarafian throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Mendez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Mendez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Daniel Sarafian over Eddie Mendez.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sarafian at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Rony Jason (4-3) taking on Mike Wilkinson (2-1). Jason will look to use a 7-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Wilkinson at 1099 versus Jason at 1010. That 89-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wilkinson throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Wilkinson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Jason has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rony Jason over Mike Wilkinson.** The model gives Jason a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Raphael Assuncao (12-6) taking on Vaughan Lee (3-4).

Assuncao is rated at 1099 — 207 points above Lee's 891. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Assuncao throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Assuncao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Raphael Assuncao over Vaughan Lee.** The model gives Assuncao a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Felipe Arantes (5-5-1) taking on Godofredo Pepey (5-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Pepey at 1026 versus Arantes at 925. That 101-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arantes throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Arantes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Arantes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Felipe Arantes over Godofredo Pepey.** The model gives Arantes a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Ildemar Alcantara (4-2) taking on Leandro Silva (3-3). Alcantara is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Silva at 1049 versus Alcantara at 929. That 121-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alcantara throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Alcantara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ildemar Alcantara over Leandro Silva.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Alcantara at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Rodrigo Damm (3-3) taking on Mizuto Hirota (1-4-1). Damm will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Damm at 858 versus Hirota at 777. That 81-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Damm's all-rounder game against Hirota's striker approach. Damm is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Hirota brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Damm throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Hirota is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Damm has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rodrigo Damm over Mizuto Hirota.** We're leaning Damm here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Caio Magalhaes (4-2) taking on Karlos Vemola (2-3).

Magalhaes is rated at 1099 — 259 points above Vemola's 839. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Magalhaes is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Vemola looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Vemola the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magalhaes throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Magalhaes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Magalhaes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Caio Magalhaes over Karlos Vemola.** The model gives Magalhaes a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Antonio Braga Neto (1-1) taking on Anthony Smith (13-11).

There's a real Elo separation here: Smith at 1070 versus Neto at 968. That 102-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Smith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Smith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Smith over Antonio Braga Neto.** The model gives Smith a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.