UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi: Predictions & Analysis

The Flyweight championship matchup features Brandon Moreno (11-5-2) taking on Amir Albazi (5-1). Moreno is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Moreno at 1410 versus Albazi at 1267. That 143-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Moreno is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Albazi looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Albazi the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moreno throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Albazi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Albazi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brandon Moreno over Amir Albazi. The model gives Moreno a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight championship matchup features Erin Blanchfield (7-1) taking on Rose Namajunas (12-6).

Blanchfield is rated at 1631 — 209 points above Namajunas's 1421. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Blanchfield's knockout artist game against Namajunas's all-rounder approach. Blanchfield is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Namajunas is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Blanchfield throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Namajunas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Namajunas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Erin Blanchfield over Rose Namajunas. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Blanchfield at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Brendson Ribeiro (2-3) taking on Caio Machado (0-2). Ribeiro will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Ribeiro at 923 versus Machado at 805. That 118-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Machado throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ribeiro is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Machado has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Caio Machado over Brendson Ribeiro. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Machado at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Jasmine Jasudavicius (8-2) taking on Ariane da Silva (6-7).

Jasudavicius is rated at 1358 — 382 points above Silva's 976. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jasudavicius rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Jasudavicius's wrestler game against Silva's knockout artist approach. Jasudavicius looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Jasudavicius is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jasmine Jasudavicius over Ariane da Silva. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jasudavicius at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Dustin Stoltzfus (3-6) taking on Marc-Andre Barriault (6-9).

Stoltzfus carries a modest Elo edge (1012 to 954), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Stoltzfus looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Barriault is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Stoltzfus the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barriault throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Stoltzfus is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Stoltzfus has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dustin Stoltzfus over Marc-Andre Barriault. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Stoltzfus at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Mike Malott (5-1) taking on Trevin Giles (7-6).

Malott is rated at 1410 — 566 points above Giles's 845. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Giles throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Malott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Giles has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Malott over Trevin Giles. The model gives Malott a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Aiemann Zahabi (7-2) taking on Pedro Munhoz (10-9). Zahabi is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Zahabi is rated at 1586 — 375 points above Munhoz's 1211. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Zahabi rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Zahabi's striker game against Munhoz's all-rounder approach. Zahabi brings a versatile approach, while Munhoz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Munhoz throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Zahabi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Zahabi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aiemann Zahabi over Pedro Munhoz. We're leaning Zahabi here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Charles Jourdain (7-7-1) taking on Victor Henry (3-2).

Jourdain is rated at 1354 — 218 points above Henry's 1135. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Henry throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Jourdain is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Jourdain has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Charles Jourdain over Victor Henry. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jourdain at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Youssef Zalal (7-3-1) taking on Jack Shore (6-2).

Zalal is rated at 1532 — 463 points above Shore's 1070. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Zalal rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Zalal looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Shore is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Zalal the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Shore throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Zalal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Zalal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Youssef Zalal over Jack Shore. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Zalal at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Alexandr Romanov (6-3) taking on Rodrigo Nascimento (4-2). Nascimento will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Romanov is rated at 1307 — 215 points above Nascimento's 1092. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Romanov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Nascimento is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Romanov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nascimento throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Romanov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Romanov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexandr Romanov over Rodrigo Nascimento. The model gives Romanov a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Serhiy Sidey (1-1) taking on Garrett Armfield (2-2). Sidey is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Sidey is rated at 1120 — 197 points above Armfield's 923. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Armfield throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Armfield is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sidey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Garrett Armfield over Serhiy Sidey. The model gives Armfield a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Cody Gibson (3-6) taking on Chad Anheliger (2-2). Gibson is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Anheliger carries a modest Elo edge (892 to 843), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gibson throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Anheliger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gibson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cody Gibson over Chad Anheliger. We're leaning Gibson here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Jamey-Lyn Horth (3-2) taking on Ivana Petrovic (1-2). Petrovic will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Horth is rated at 1183 — 395 points above Petrovic's 788. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Horth throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Petrovic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Horth has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ivana Petrovic over Jamey-Lyn Horth. The model gives Petrovic a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.