UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Latifi: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Gegard Mousasi (9-3) taking on Ilir Latifi (9-7). Mousasi is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Mousasi is rated at 1837 — 528 points above Latifi's 1309. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Mousasi rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Mousasi is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Latifi looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Latifi the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Latifi throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Latifi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Latifi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gegard Mousasi over Ilir Latifi. The model gives Mousasi a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Ross Pearson (12-13) taking on Ryan Couture (0-2). Couture is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Pearson is rated at 958 — 191 points above Couture's 767. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pearson throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Pearson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Couture has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ross Pearson over Ryan Couture. We're leaning Pearson here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Matt Mitrione (9-5) taking on Philip De Fries (2-3). Mitrione will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Mitrione is rated at 1333 — 500 points above Fries's 832. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mitrione throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Fries is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Mitrione has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Mitrione over Philip De Fries. We're leaning Mitrione here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Brad Pickett (5-9) taking on Mike Easton (3-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Easton at 1018 versus Pickett at 938. That 81-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Pickett's all-rounder game against Easton's striker approach. Pickett is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Easton brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pickett throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Pickett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Easton has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Easton over Brad Pickett. The model gives Easton a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Diego Brandao (6-4) taking on Pablo Garza (3-3). Garza is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

Brandao is rated at 1206 — 290 points above Garza's 916. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Brandao is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Garza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 55% win rate against submission artists, giving Garza the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Garza throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Brandao is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Brandao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Diego Brandao over Pablo Garza. We're leaning Brandao here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Akira Corassani (3-3) taking on Robert Peralta (4-3). Peralta will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Peralta is rated at 1087 — 212 points above Corassani's 875. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Peralta throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Peralta is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Peralta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Akira Corassani over Robert Peralta. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Corassani at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Reza Madadi (3-4) taking on Michael Johnson (16-16).

Johnson carries a modest Elo edge (1155 to 1096), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Johnson has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Madadi's wrestler game against Johnson's striker approach. Madadi looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Johnson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Madadi throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Madadi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Madadi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Reza Madadi over Michael Johnson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Madadi at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Tor Troeng (1-3) taking on Adam Cella (0-1).

Cella carries a modest Elo edge (834 to 791), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cella throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Cella is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Cella has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tor Troeng over Adam Cella. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Troeng at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Adlan Amagov (2-0) taking on Chris Spang (0-1).

Amagov is rated at 1434 — 561 points above Spang's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Spang throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Spang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Spang has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Spang over Adlan Amagov. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Spang at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Conor McGregor (10-4) taking on Marcus Brimage (4-4). McGregor is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

McGregor is rated at 1685 — 898 points above Brimage's 787. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brimage throws significantly more leather — a 5.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Brimage is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. McGregor has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Conor McGregor over Marcus Brimage. The model gives McGregor a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Ryan LaFlare (7-3) taking on Ben Alloway (1-2).

LaFlare is rated at 1248 — 413 points above Alloway's 834. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alloway throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Alloway is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. LaFlare has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ben Alloway over Ryan LaFlare. The model gives Alloway a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Tom Lawlor (6-5) taking on Michael Kuiper (1-3).

Lawlor is rated at 1245 — 492 points above Kuiper's 754. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kuiper throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Lawlor is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Lawlor has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tom Lawlor over Michael Kuiper. The model gives Lawlor a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Papy Abedi (1-3) taking on Besam Yousef (0-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Abedi at 836 versus Yousef at 715. That 121-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yousef throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Abedi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Abedi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Besam Yousef over Papy Abedi. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Yousef at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.