UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Georges St-Pierre (19-2) taking on Nick Diaz (7-6).

St-Pierre is rated at 2022 — 836 points above Diaz's 1185. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. St-Pierre rides a 12-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is St-Pierre's wrestler game against Diaz's knockout artist approach. St-Pierre looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Diaz is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Diaz throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. St-Pierre is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. St-Pierre has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Georges St-Pierre over Nick Diaz.** The model is firm on this one: St-Pierre at 81%.

The Welterweight matchup features Johny Hendricks (13-7) taking on Carlos Condit (9-9). Condit is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Condit at 1165 versus Hendricks at 1068. That 97-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Hendricks's striker game against Condit's all-rounder approach. Hendricks brings a versatile approach, while Condit is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Condit throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Hendricks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Hendricks has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Johny Hendricks over Carlos Condit.** We're leaning Hendricks here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Jake Ellenberger (10-10) taking on Nate Marquardt (13-11). Marquardt is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Marquardt is rated at 1064 — 217 points above Ellenberger's 847. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Ellenberger brings a versatile approach, while Marquardt is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Marquardt the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ellenberger throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ellenberger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ellenberger has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jake Ellenberger over Nate Marquardt.** The model gives Ellenberger a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Camozzi (9-9) taking on Nick Ring (3-2).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Camozzi at 986, Ring at 1015. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Camozzi throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ring is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Camozzi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chris Camozzi over Nick Ring.** The model gives Camozzi a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Mike Ricci (1-1) taking on Colin Fletcher (0-1).

Ricci is rated at 985 — 155 points above Fletcher's 830. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fletcher throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Fletcher is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Fletcher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mike Ricci over Colin Fletcher.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ricci at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Patrick Cote (10-10) taking on Bobby Voelker (0-3).

Cote is rated at 1221 — 485 points above Voelker's 736. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cote throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Cote is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Voelker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Bobby Voelker over Patrick Cote.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Voelker at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Darren Elkins (19-10) taking on Antonio Carvalho (2-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Elkins at 1113, Carvalho at 1084. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Carvalho throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Elkins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Carvalho has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Darren Elkins over Antonio Carvalho.** The model gives Elkins a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Jordan Mein (4-4) taking on Dan Miller (6-6).

Mein is rated at 1192 — 305 points above Miller's 886. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Mein is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Miller looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Miller the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miller throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Mein has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dan Miller over Jordan Mein.** The model gives Miller a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features John Makdessi (11-8) taking on Daron Cruickshank (6-5). Cruickshank will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Makdessi at 989 versus Cruickshank at 879. That 110-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Makdessi's striker game against Cruickshank's wrestler approach. Makdessi brings a versatile approach, while Cruickshank looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Makdessi throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Cruickshank is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Makdessi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: John Makdessi over Daron Cruickshank.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Makdessi at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Rick Story (12-6) taking on Quinn Mulhern (0-1).

Story is rated at 1358 — 487 points above Mulhern's 871. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Story rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Story throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Story is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Mulhern has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rick Story over Quinn Mulhern.** The model is firm on this one: Story at 82%.

The Bantamweight matchup features TJ Dillashaw (13-4) taking on Issei Tamura (1-1). Dillashaw will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Dillashaw is rated at 1581 — 702 points above Tamura's 880. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dillashaw throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Dillashaw is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Dillashaw has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: TJ Dillashaw over Issei Tamura.** We're leaning Dillashaw here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features George Roop (5-7) taking on Reuben Duran (1-2). There's a 6-inch height gap favoring Roop.

Roop carries a modest Elo edge (881 to 824), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roop throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Duran is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Duran has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Reuben Duran over George Roop.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Duran at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.