UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Ronda Rousey (6-1) taking on Liz Carmouche (5-4).

Rousey carries a modest Elo edge (1203 to 1127), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Rousey's knockout artist game against Carmouche's wrestler approach. Rousey is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Carmouche looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Carmouche throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Carmouche is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Carmouche has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ronda Rousey over Liz Carmouche.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rousey at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Lyoto Machida (15-8) taking on Dan Henderson (9-8).

There's a real Elo separation here: Machida at 1493 versus Henderson at 1404. That 89-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Henderson throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Henderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Machida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Lyoto Machida over Dan Henderson.** We're leaning Machida here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Urijah Faber (11-6) taking on Ivan Menjivar (4-4). Faber will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Faber is rated at 1297 — 402 points above Menjivar's 895. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Menjivar throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Faber is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Faber has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ivan Menjivar over Urijah Faber.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Menjivar at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Court McGee (11-12) taking on Josh Neer (6-8). McGee will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

McGee is rated at 1037 — 165 points above Neer's 872. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGee throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. McGee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Neer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Court McGee over Josh Neer.** We're leaning McGee here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Robbie Lawler (14-10) taking on Josh Koscheck (15-9).

Lawler is rated at 1297 — 357 points above Koscheck's 939. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Lawler's striker game against Koscheck's all-rounder approach. Lawler brings a versatile approach, while Koscheck is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lawler throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lawler is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Lawler has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Josh Koscheck over Robbie Lawler.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Koscheck at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Brendan Schaub (6-4) taking on Lavar Johnson (2-1). Johnson will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Schaub at 1154 versus Johnson at 1026. That 128-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 7.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Schaub is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Lavar Johnson over Brendan Schaub.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Johnson at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Michael Chiesa (13-7) taking on Anton Kuivanen (1-1). Chiesa is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Chiesa is rated at 1490 — 585 points above Kuivanen's 905. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chiesa throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Chiesa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Kuivanen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michael Chiesa over Anton Kuivanen.** We're leaning Chiesa here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Dennis Bermudez (9-7) taking on Matt Grice (2-4). Grice is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Bermudez is rated at 1068 — 255 points above Grice's 813. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grice throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Bermudez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Grice has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dennis Bermudez over Matt Grice.** The model gives Bermudez a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Sam Stout (9-10) taking on Caros Fodor (0-0). Fodor will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Fodor is rated at 946 — 190 points above Stout's 756. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stout throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Stout is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Fodor has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sam Stout over Caros Fodor.** The model gives Stout a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Kenny Robertson (4-4) taking on Brock Jardine (0-1).

Robertson is rated at 1097 — 258 points above Jardine's 839. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Robertson throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Jardine is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jardine has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kenny Robertson over Brock Jardine.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Robertson at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Neil Magny (24-12) taking on Jon Manley (0-0).

Magny is rated at 1270 — 355 points above Manley's 915. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Manley throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Manley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Manley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Neil Magny over Jon Manley.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Magny at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Nah-Shon Burrell (1-0) taking on Yuri Villefort (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Burrell at 987 versus Villefort at 842. That 145-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Villefort throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Villefort is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Villefort has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yuri Villefort over Nah-Shon Burrell.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Villefort at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.