UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
Saturday, January 26, 2013·Chicago, Illinois, USA
Model Record: 8/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Flyweight✓
Demetrious Johnson won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Johnson 61%39% Dodson
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -30(favors Dodson)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Dodson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Johnson)
Light Heavyweight✓
Glover Teixeira won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Teixeira 71%29% Jackson
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -83(favors Jackson)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.8(favors Teixeira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.4(favors Teixeira)
Lightweight✓
Anthony Pettis won by KO/TKO (R1)
Pettis 53%47% Cerrone
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -162(favors Cerrone)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.8(favors Cerrone)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Pettis)
Featherweight✗
Ricardo Lamas won by KO/TKO (R2)
Lamas 42%58% Koch
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +41(favors Lamas)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Koch)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Lamas)
Lightweight✓
TJ Grant won by KO/TKO (R1)
Grant 61%39% Wiman
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -78(favors Wiman)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Wiman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Wiman)
Featherweight✗
Clay Guida won by Decision - Split (R3)
Guida 45%55% Hioki
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +203(favors Guida)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Hioki)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Hioki)
Welterweight✓
Pascal Krauss won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Krauss 78%22% Stumpf
STRONG
→Elo gap: +139(favors Krauss)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Krauss)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Krauss)
Light Heavyweight✓
Ryan Bader won by Submission (R1)
Bader 57%43% Matyushenko
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +49(favors Bader)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Matyushenko)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Matyushenko)
Heavyweight✓
Shawn Jordan won by KO/TKO (R2)
Jordan 60%40% Russow
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -141(favors Russow)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Jordan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.6(favors Russow)
Middleweight✓
Rafael Natal won by Submission (R3)
Natal 58%42% Spencer
LEAN
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -7(favors Spencer)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Natal)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.2(favors Natal)
Welterweight✗
David Mitchell won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Mitchell 28%72% Thoresen
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -142(favors Thoresen)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Thoresen)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Thoresen)