UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson: Predictions & Analysis

The Flyweight championship matchup features Demetrious Johnson (15-1-1) taking on John Dodson (10-6).

Johnson is rated at 1603 — 347 points above Dodson's 1256. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 13-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dodson throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Dodson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Demetrious Johnson over John Dodson.** The model gives Johnson a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Glover Teixeira (16-6) taking on Quinton Jackson (7-5). Teixeira will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Teixeira is rated at 1596 — 300 points above Jackson's 1296. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Teixeira's wrestler game against Jackson's striker approach. Teixeira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Jackson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Teixeira throws significantly more leather — a 6.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Teixeira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Teixeira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Glover Teixeira over Quinton Jackson.** We're leaning Teixeira here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Anthony Pettis (10-9) taking on Donald Cerrone (23-13). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Cerrone.

Pettis is rated at 1512 — 458 points above Cerrone's 1054. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Pettis's all-rounder game against Cerrone's knockout artist approach. Pettis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Cerrone is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerrone throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Pettis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Pettis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Pettis over Donald Cerrone.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pettis at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Ricardo Lamas (10-6) taking on Erik Koch (4-5).

Lamas is rated at 1285 — 268 points above Koch's 1017. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Koch throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Lamas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Lamas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Erik Koch over Ricardo Lamas.** The model gives Koch a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features TJ Grant (7-3) taking on Matt Wiman (10-7). Grant will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Grant is rated at 1640 — 771 points above Wiman's 868. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Grant rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wiman throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Wiman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Grant has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: TJ Grant over Matt Wiman.** The model gives Grant a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Clay Guida (18-18) taking on Hatsu Hioki (3-4). Hioki is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Guida carries a modest Elo edge (926 to 875), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Guida looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hioki is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Guida the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hioki throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hioki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Guida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Hatsu Hioki over Clay Guida.** The model gives Hioki a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Pascal Krauss (2-1) taking on Mike Stumpf (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Krauss at 980 versus Stumpf at 842. That 138-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Krauss throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Krauss is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Krauss has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Pascal Krauss over Mike Stumpf.** The model is firm on this one: Krauss at 78%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ryan Bader (14-5) taking on Vladimir Matyushenko (7-4).

Bader is rated at 1619 — 492 points above Matyushenko's 1126. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Matyushenko throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Matyushenko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Matyushenko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ryan Bader over Vladimir Matyushenko.** The model gives Bader a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Shawn Jordan (6-3) taking on Mike Russow (4-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Jordan at 1164 versus Russow at 1027. That 137-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Jordan rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Jordan's striker game against Russow's wrestler approach. Jordan brings a versatile approach, while Russow looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jordan throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Russow is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.6 more per 15 minutes. Russow has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Shawn Jordan over Mike Russow.** The model gives Jordan a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Rafael Natal (9-6-1) taking on Sean Spencer (3-4). Natal is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Natal carries a modest Elo edge (931 to 862), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Natal's wrestler game against Spencer's striker approach. Natal looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Spencer brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Natal throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Natal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Spencer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rafael Natal over Sean Spencer.** The model gives Natal a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features David Mitchell (1-3) taking on Simeon Thoresen (1-1). Thoresen will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Mitchell at 903, Thoresen at 909. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Thoresen throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Thoresen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Thoresen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Simeon Thoresen over David Mitchell.** We're leaning Thoresen here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.