UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Vitor Belfort (15-9) taking on Michael Bisping (20-8).

Bisping is rated at 1522 — 267 points above Belfort's 1255. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Belfort is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Bisping brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Belfort the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bisping throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Bisping is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Bisping has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Vitor Belfort over Michael Bisping.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Belfort at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features CB Dollaway (11-8) taking on Daniel Sarafian (2-3). Dollaway is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Dollaway carries a modest Elo edge (965 to 888), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Dollaway looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Sarafian is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dollaway the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dollaway throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Dollaway is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Sarafian has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: CB Dollaway over Daniel Sarafian.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dollaway at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Gabriel Gonzaga (12-9) taking on Ben Rothwell (9-7). Rothwell is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Rothwell at 1080 versus Gonzaga at 967. That 113-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Gonzaga is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Rothwell is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Gonzaga the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gonzaga throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Rothwell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Gonzaga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ben Rothwell over Gabriel Gonzaga.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rothwell at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Khabib Nurmagomedov (12-0) taking on Thiago Tavares (10-6-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Nurmagomedov.

Nurmagomedov is rated at 2060 — 936 points above Tavares's 1124. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Nurmagomedov rides a 12-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tavares throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Tavares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Tavares has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Khabib Nurmagomedov over Thiago Tavares.** We're leaning Nurmagomedov here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Godofredo Pepey (5-5) taking on Milton Vieira (0-0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Pepey at 1026 versus Vieira at 918. That 108-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pepey throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Vieira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Pepey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Godofredo Pepey over Milton Vieira.** The model gives Pepey a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Ronny Markes (3-1) taking on Andrew Craig (3-3).

Markes carries a modest Elo edge (918 to 852), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Markes throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Markes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Markes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ronny Markes over Andrew Craig.** The model gives Markes a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Nik Lentz (14-8-1) taking on Diego Nunes (3-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Lentz at 1159 versus Nunes at 1047. That 112-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Lentz's wrestler game against Nunes's striker approach. Lentz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Nunes brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nunes throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Lentz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Nunes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Diego Nunes over Nik Lentz.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nunes at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Edson Barboza (18-13) taking on Lucas Martins (3-3). Barboza will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Barboza carries a modest Elo edge (1142 to 1095), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Barboza's striker game against Martins's all-rounder approach. Barboza brings a versatile approach, while Martins is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barboza throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Barboza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Martins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Edson Barboza over Lucas Martins.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Barboza at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Iuri Alcantara (10-6) taking on Pedro Nobre (0-0).

Alcantara carries a modest Elo edge (1046 to 1000), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alcantara throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Alcantara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Nobre has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Iuri Alcantara over Pedro Nobre.** We're leaning Alcantara here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ildemar Alcantara (4-2) taking on Wagner Prado (0-1). Alcantara is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Alcantara carries a modest Elo edge (929 to 871), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Prado throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Prado is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Alcantara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Wagner Prado over Ildemar Alcantara.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Prado at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Francisco Trinaldo (18-7) taking on CJ Keith (0-1).

Trinaldo is rated at 1329 — 515 points above Keith's 815. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Trinaldo throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Keith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Keith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Francisco Trinaldo over CJ Keith.** The model gives Trinaldo a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.