The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale
Saturday, December 15, 2012·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 7/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Heavyweight✗
Roy Nelson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Nelson 39%61% Mitrione
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -37(favors Mitrione)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Mitrione)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Nelson)
Welterweight✗
Colton Smith won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Smith 48%52% Ricci
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -0(favors Ricci)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Ricci)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Ricci)
Heavyweight✓
Pat Barry won by KO/TKO (R2)
Barry 57%43% Rosario
LEAN
→Elo gap: +36(favors Barry)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Rosario)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Rosario)
Featherweight✓
Dustin Poirier won by Submission (R1)
Poirier 67%33% Brookins
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +133(favors Poirier)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Poirier)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Brookins)
Welterweight✓
Mike Pyle won by KO/TKO (R1)
Pyle 61%39% Head
LEAN
→Elo gap: +149(favors Pyle)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Pyle)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors Pyle)
Bantamweight✓
Johnny Bedford won by KO/TKO (R2)
Bedford 69%31% Vinicius
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -0(favors Vinicius)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.3(favors Bedford)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.0(favors Bedford)
Lightweight✗
Rustam Khabilov won by KO/TKO (R1)
Khabilov 49%51% Pichel
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -0(favors Pichel)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Pichel)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Pichel)
Welterweight✓
TJ Waldburger won by Submission (R2)
Waldburger 58%42% Catone
LEAN
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +244(favors Waldburger)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Catone)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Waldburger)
Bantamweight✓
Hugo Viana won by KO/TKO (R1)
Viana 57%43% Duran
LEAN
→Elo gap: +4(favors Viana)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Viana)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Duran)
Lightweight✗
Mike Rio won by Submission (R3)
Rio 36%64% Cofer
LEAN
→Elo gap: +128(favors Rio)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.5(favors Cofer)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.9(favors Cofer)
Flyweight✓
Tim Elliott won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Elliott 60%40% Papazian
LEAN
→Elo gap: +133(favors Elliott)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Elliott)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Papazian)