The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale: Predictions & Analysis
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale lands on Saturday, December 15, 2012 in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA with 11 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Nelson vs Matt MitrioneHeavyweight | Matt Mitrione | Lean | 61% |
| Colton Smith vs Mike RicciWelterweight | Mike Ricci | Toss-up | 52% |
| Pat Barry vs Shane del RosarioHeavyweight | Pat Barry | Lean | 57% |
| Dustin Poirier vs Jonathan BrookinsFeatherweight | Dustin Poirier | Confident | 67% |
| Mike Pyle vs James HeadWelterweight | Mike Pyle | Lean | 61% |
| Johnny Bedford vs Marcos ViniciusBantamweight | Johnny Bedford | Confident | 69% |
| Rustam Khabilov vs Vinc PichelLightweight | Vinc Pichel | Toss-up | 51% |
| TJ Waldburger vs Nick CatoneWelterweight | TJ Waldburger | Lean | 58% |
| Hugo Viana vs Reuben DuranBantamweight | Hugo Viana | Lean | 57% |
| Mike Rio vs John CoferLightweight | John Cofer | Lean | 64% |
| Tim Elliott vs Jared PapazianFlyweight | Tim Elliott | Lean | 60% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Roy Nelson vs Matt Mitrione
The Heavyweight matchup features Roy Nelson (9-9) taking on Matt Mitrione (9-4). Mitrione is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 9-inch reach advantage.
Mitrione carries a modest Elo edge (1200 to 1129), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
Stylistically this is Nelson's all-rounder game against Mitrione's knockout artist approach. Nelson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Mitrione is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Mitrione throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Nelson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Mitrione has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Matt Mitrione over Roy Nelson. The model gives Mitrione a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.
Colton Smith vs Mike Ricci
The Welterweight matchup features Colton Smith (1-2) taking on Mike Ricci (1-1). Ricci will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.
Ricci is rated at 985 — 181 points above Smith's 804. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Ricci throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ricci is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ricci has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Mike Ricci over Colton Smith. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ricci at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Pat Barry vs Shane del Rosario
The Heavyweight matchup features Pat Barry (5-6) taking on Shane del Rosario (0-1).
Barry carries a modest Elo edge (910 to 834), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Rosario throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Rosario is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Barry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Pat Barry over Shane del Rosario. The model gives Barry a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
Dustin Poirier vs Jonathan Brookins
The Featherweight matchup features Dustin Poirier (22-8) taking on Jonathan Brookins (2-2). Brookins is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
Poirier is rated at 1681 — 698 points above Brookins's 984. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Poirier throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Brookins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Poirier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Dustin Poirier over Jonathan Brookins. We're leaning Poirier here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Mike Pyle vs James Head
The Welterweight matchup features Mike Pyle (10-8) taking on James Head (2-2).
There's a real Elo separation here: Head at 922 versus Pyle at 831. That 91-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Pyle throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Pyle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Pyle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Mike Pyle over James Head. The model gives Pyle a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.
Johnny Bedford vs Marcos Vinicius
The Bantamweight matchup features Johnny Bedford (2-2) taking on Marcos Vinicius (1-1).
Vinicius carries a modest Elo edge (873 to 841), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Bedford throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Bedford is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Bedford has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Johnny Bedford over Marcos Vinicius. We're leaning Bedford here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Rustam Khabilov vs Vinc Pichel
The Lightweight matchup features Rustam Khabilov (9-3) taking on Vinc Pichel (7-4).
Khabilov is rated at 1389 — 327 points above Pichel's 1062. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Khabilov's striker game against Pichel's all-rounder approach. Khabilov brings a versatile approach, while Pichel is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Pichel throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Pichel is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Pichel has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Vinc Pichel over Rustam Khabilov. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pichel at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
TJ Waldburger vs Nick Catone
The Welterweight matchup features TJ Waldburger (4-3) taking on Nick Catone (3-4). Waldburger will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Waldburger at 1008, Catone at 1004. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
The style clash matters here: Waldburger is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Catone looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Catone the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Catone throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Waldburger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Catone has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: TJ Waldburger over Nick Catone. The model gives Waldburger a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.
Hugo Viana vs Reuben Duran
The Bantamweight matchup features Hugo Viana (3-2) taking on Reuben Duran (1-2). Duran will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.
Viana carries a modest Elo edge (869 to 824), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Viana throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Duran is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Viana has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Hugo Viana over Reuben Duran. The model gives Viana a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
Mike Rio vs John Cofer
The Lightweight matchup features Mike Rio (1-2) taking on John Cofer (0-1).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Rio at 818, Cofer at 801. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Cofer throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Cofer is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Rio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: John Cofer over Mike Rio. The model gives Cofer a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.
Tim Elliott vs Jared Papazian
The Flyweight matchup features Tim Elliott (9-11) taking on Jared Papazian (0-2).
Elliott is rated at 1241 — 484 points above Papazian's 758. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Elliott throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Papazian is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Elliott has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Tim Elliott over Jared Papazian. The model gives Elliott a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.