UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight championship matchup features Benson Henderson (10-3) taking on Frankie Edgar (18-10-1). Henderson is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Henderson is rated at 1507 — 321 points above Edgar's 1185. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Henderson throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Henderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Edgar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Benson Henderson over Frankie Edgar.** The model gives Henderson a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Donald Cerrone (23-13) taking on Melvin Guillard (12-8). Cerrone is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Guillard at 1177 versus Cerrone at 1054. That 123-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Cerrone's all-rounder game against Guillard's striker approach. Cerrone is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Guillard brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerrone throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Guillard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Guillard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Donald Cerrone over Melvin Guillard.** The model gives Cerrone a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Jake Shields (4-2) taking on Ed Herman (13-11). Herman will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Shields is rated at 1232 — 186 points above Herman's 1045. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Shields's striker game against Herman's wrestler approach. Shields brings a versatile approach, while Herman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Herman throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Herman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Shields has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ed Herman over Jake Shields.** The model gives Herman a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Yushin Okami (14-6) taking on Buddy Roberts (1-0).

Okami carries a modest Elo edge (1061 to 1024), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Okami throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Okami is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Roberts has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yushin Okami over Buddy Roberts.** We're leaning Okami here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Max Holloway (22-8) taking on Justin Lawrence (1-1). Holloway is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Holloway is rated at 1897 — 1067 points above Lawrence's 830. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holloway throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Lawrence is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Holloway has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Max Holloway over Justin Lawrence.** The model gives Holloway a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Dennis Bermudez (9-7) taking on Tommy Hayden (0-1).

Bermudez is rated at 1068 — 257 points above Hayden's 811. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bermudez throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Hayden is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Hayden has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dennis Bermudez over Tommy Hayden.** We're leaning Bermudez here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Michael Kuiper (1-2) taking on Jared Hamman (2-4). Hamman is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Kuiper at 831 versus Hamman at 734. That 97-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hamman throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Hamman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Hamman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michael Kuiper over Jared Hamman.** The model gives Kuiper a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Erik Perez (6-2) taking on Ken Stone (2-1). Stone will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Perez is rated at 1303 — 344 points above Stone's 959. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perez throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Stone is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Erik Perez over Ken Stone.** The model gives Perez a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Chico Camus (3-3) taking on Dustin Pague (1-4). Pague is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Camus is rated at 952 — 196 points above Pague's 755. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Camus is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Pague looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Pague the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pague throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Pague is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Camus has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dustin Pague over Chico Camus.** The model gives Pague a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Nik Lentz (14-8-1) taking on Eiji Mitsuoka (0-1).

Lentz is rated at 1159 — 336 points above Mitsuoka's 823. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mitsuoka throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Mitsuoka is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Mitsuoka has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nik Lentz over Eiji Mitsuoka.** The model is firm on this one: Lentz at 77%.