UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann: Predictions & Analysis
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann lands on Friday, March 2, 2012 in Sydney, New South Wales, Australia with 11 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Kampmann vs Thiago AlvesWelterweight | Martin Kampmann | Lean | 55% |
| Joseph Benavidez vs Yasuhiro UrushitaniFlyweight | Joseph Benavidez | Strong | 87% |
| Demetrious Johnson vs Ian McCallFlyweight | Demetrious Johnson | Lean | 61% |
| Constantinos Philippou vs Court McGeeMiddleweight | Court McGee | Lean | 57% |
| James Te Huna vs Aaron RosaLight Heavyweight | James Te Huna | Confident | 71% |
| Anthony Perosh vs Nick PennerLight Heavyweight | Anthony Perosh | Confident | 75% |
| Steven Siler vs Cole MillerFeatherweight | Steven Siler | Lean | 58% |
| Andrew Craig vs Kyle NokeMiddleweight | Kyle Noke | Lean | 60% |
| TJ Waldburger vs Jake HechtWelterweight | TJ Waldburger | Lean | 61% |
| Daniel Pineda vs Mackens SemerzierFeatherweight | Daniel Pineda | Toss-up | 52% |
| Shawn Jordan vs Oli ThompsonHeavyweight | Shawn Jordan | Toss-up | 54% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Martin Kampmann vs Thiago Alves
The Welterweight matchup features Martin Kampmann (11-5) taking on Thiago Alves (15-11). Kampmann is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
Kampmann is rated at 1358 — 457 points above Alves's 901. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Kampmann looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Alves is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Kampmann the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Kampmann throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Kampmann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Kampmann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Martin Kampmann over Thiago Alves. The model gives Kampmann a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.
Demetrious Johnson vs Ian McCall
The Flyweight matchup features Demetrious Johnson (15-1-1) taking on Ian McCall (2-2-1).
Johnson is rated at 1603 — 561 points above McCall's 1042. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 13-fight win streak into this one.
Stylistically this is Johnson's wrestler game against McCall's striker approach. Johnson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while McCall brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.4 more per 15 minutes. McCall has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Demetrious Johnson over Ian McCall. The model gives Johnson a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.
Constantinos Philippou vs Court McGee
The Middleweight matchup features Constantinos Philippou (6-3) taking on Court McGee (11-12).
There's a real Elo separation here: Philippou at 1179 versus McGee at 1037. That 142-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
Stylistically this is Philippou's striker game against McGee's wrestler approach. Philippou brings a versatile approach, while McGee looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. McGee throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. McGee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. McGee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Court McGee over Constantinos Philippou. The model gives McGee a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
James Te Huna vs Aaron Rosa
The Light Heavyweight matchup features James Te Huna (5-4) taking on Aaron Rosa (1-1). Rosa is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
Rosa carries a modest Elo edge (902 to 843), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Rosa throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Huna is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.8 more per 15 minutes. Huna has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: James Te Huna over Aaron Rosa. We're leaning Huna here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Anthony Perosh vs Nick Penner
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Anthony Perosh (5-6) taking on Nick Penner (0-1).
Perosh carries a modest Elo edge (872 to 814), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Perosh throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Perosh is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Penner has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Anthony Perosh over Nick Penner. We're leaning Perosh here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Steven Siler vs Cole Miller
The Featherweight matchup features Steven Siler (5-3) taking on Cole Miller (10-8). Miller is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Siler at 888, Miller at 891. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
The style clash matters here: Siler looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Miller is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Siler the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Siler throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Steven Siler over Cole Miller. The model gives Siler a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.
Andrew Craig vs Kyle Noke
The Middleweight matchup features Andrew Craig (3-3) taking on Kyle Noke (6-5).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Craig at 852, Noke at 869. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
Stylistically this is Craig's striker game against Noke's all-rounder approach. Craig brings a versatile approach, while Noke is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Noke throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Noke is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Craig has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Kyle Noke over Andrew Craig. The model gives Noke a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.
TJ Waldburger vs Jake Hecht
The Welterweight matchup features TJ Waldburger (4-3) taking on Jake Hecht (1-1).
Waldburger carries a modest Elo edge (1008 to 963), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Hecht throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Waldburger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.6 more per 15 minutes. Hecht has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: TJ Waldburger over Jake Hecht. The model gives Waldburger a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.
Daniel Pineda vs Mackens Semerzier
The Featherweight matchup features Daniel Pineda (5-7) taking on Mackens Semerzier (1-0). Semerzier is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Pineda at 979, Semerzier at 1000. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Pineda throws significantly more leather — a 7.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Pineda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.3 more per 15 minutes. Semerzier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Daniel Pineda over Mackens Semerzier. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pineda at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Shawn Jordan vs Oli Thompson
The Heavyweight matchup features Shawn Jordan (6-3) taking on Oli Thompson (0-1).
Jordan is rated at 1164 — 369 points above Thompson's 795. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jordan rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.
A few statistical edges stand out. Thompson throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Thompson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Thompson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Shawn Jordan over Oli Thompson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jordan at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.