UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.
Saturday, October 5, 2024·Salt Lake City, Utah, USA·12 fights
Model: 9/12(75%)
Full Preview & Analysis →✓✗✓✗✓✓✓✓✓✓✗✓
Main Card
Light HeavyweightHIT
Alex Pereira won by KO/TKO (R4)
Pereira 83%17% Jr.
Over/UnderOver 68%
Under 32%Over 68%
STRONGMarket: 79% (+4.0% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +619(favors Pereira)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Jr.)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Jr.)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Julianna Pena won by Decision - Split (R5)
Pena 37%63% Pennington
Over/UnderOver 70%
Under 30%Over 70%
LEANMarket: 41% (-3.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +5(favors Pena)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Pennington)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Pena)
BantamweightHIT
Mario Bautista won by Decision - Split (R3)
Bautista 51%49% Aldo
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
TOSS-UPMarket: 54% (-3.0% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -205(favors Aldo)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Bautista)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.8(favors Bautista)
MiddleweightMISS
Roman Dolidze won by KO/TKO (R1)
Dolidze 39%61% Holland
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEANMarket: 42% (-3.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +15(favors Dolidze)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Holland)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Holland)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Kayla Harrison won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Harrison 88%12% Vieira
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
STRONGMarket: 88% (-0.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -77(favors Vieira)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.5(favors Harrison)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.3(favors Harrison)
Prelims
WelterweightHIT
Joaquin Buckley won by KO/TKO (R3)
Buckley 75%25% Thompson
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+8.6% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -40(favors Thompson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Buckley)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.2(favors Buckley)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Iasmin Lucindo won by Decision - Split (R3)
Lucindo 73%27% Rodriguez
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENTMarket: 62% (+11.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +23(favors Lucindo)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Lucindo)
LightweightHIT
Alexander Hernandez won by Decision - Split (R3)
Hernandez 56%44% Hubbard
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
LEANMarket: 50% (+5.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +133(favors Hernandez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Hernandez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Hubbard)
MiddleweightHIT
Cesar Almeida won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Almeida 83%17% Potieria
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
STRONGMarket: 79% (+4.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +145(favors Almeida)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Potieria)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Potieria)
Early Prelims
Light HeavyweightHIT
Ryan Spann won by Submission (R1)
Spann 62%38% Preux
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +125(favors Spann)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Preux)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Spann)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Tecia Pennington won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pennington 44%56% Esparza
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -328(favors Esparza)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.5(favors Pennington)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Esparza)
WelterweightHIT
Court McGee won by Submission (R1)
McGee 59%41% Means
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -133(favors Means)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Means)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors McGee)