UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Alex Pereira (9-2) taking on Khalil Rountree Jr. (10-6). Pereira is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Pereira is rated at 2004 — 498 points above Jr.'s 1506. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Pereira is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Jr. brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Pereira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jr. throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Jr. is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jr. has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alex Pereira over Khalil Rountree Jr..** We're leaning Pereira here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Bantamweight championship matchup features Julianna Pena (8-3) taking on Raquel Pennington (13-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Pennington at 1411 versus Pena at 1323. That 88-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Pennington has won 6 straight.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pennington throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Pena is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Pennington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Raquel Pennington over Julianna Pena.** The model gives Pennington a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Mario Bautista (10-3) taking on Jose Aldo (14-8).

There's a real Elo separation here: Bautista at 1566 versus Aldo at 1420. That 146-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Bautista looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Aldo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Bautista the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bautista throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Bautista is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Aldo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jose Aldo over Mario Bautista.** The model gives Aldo a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Roman Dolidze (9-3) taking on Kevin Holland (15-11). Holland will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Dolidze is rated at 1546 — 290 points above Holland's 1257. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dolidze rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Dolidze's all-rounder game against Holland's knockout artist approach. Dolidze is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Holland is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holland throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Holland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Holland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kevin Holland over Roman Dolidze.** The model gives Holland a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Kayla Harrison (2-0) taking on Ketlen Vieira (9-4).

Harrison is rated at 1470 — 176 points above Vieira's 1294. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Harrison throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Harrison is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Harrison has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kayla Harrison over Ketlen Vieira.** The model gives Harrison a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Joaquin Buckley (11-4) taking on Stephen Thompson (12-8-1).

Buckley is rated at 1728 — 399 points above Thompson's 1329. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Buckley rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Buckley throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Buckley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Buckley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joaquin Buckley over Stephen Thompson.** We're leaning Buckley here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Iasmin Lucindo (4-2) taking on Marina Rodriguez (7-5-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Rodriguez.

Lucindo is rated at 1309 — 250 points above Rodriguez's 1059. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Lucindo's all-rounder game against Rodriguez's knockout artist approach. Lucindo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Rodriguez is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lucindo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Lucindo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Iasmin Lucindo over Marina Rodriguez.** We're leaning Lucindo here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Alexander Hernandez (9-7) taking on Austin Hubbard (4-7).

Hernandez is rated at 1469 — 651 points above Hubbard's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hernandez rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Hernandez's all-rounder game against Hubbard's striker approach. Hernandez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Hubbard brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hernandez throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Hubbard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Hubbard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Austin Hubbard over Alexander Hernandez.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hubbard at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Cesar Almeida (3-1) taking on Ihor Potieria (2-5).

Almeida is rated at 1107 — 286 points above Potieria's 821. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Potieria throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Potieria is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Potieria has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ihor Potieria over Cesar Almeida.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Potieria at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ryan Spann (8-6) taking on Ovince Saint Preux (15-12).

Spann is rated at 1116 — 200 points above Preux's 917. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Spann looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Preux is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Spann the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Preux throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Spann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Preux has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ryan Spann over Ovince Saint Preux.** The model gives Spann a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Tecia Pennington (11-7) taking on Carla Esparza (10-5). Esparza will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Esparza carries a modest Elo edge (1274 to 1206), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Pennington is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Esparza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Esparza the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pennington throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Esparza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Esparza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Carla Esparza over Tecia Pennington.** The model gives Esparza a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Court McGee (11-12) taking on Tim Means (15-13). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Means.

McGee is rated at 1037 — 165 points above Means's 872. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: McGee looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Means is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving McGee the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Means throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. McGee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. McGee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tim Means over Court McGee.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Means at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.